Things didn’t quite pan out for Shamal Wind through the autumn but when you take away the boom (or bust) and analyse the form a winning start to her spring campaign looks extremely likely.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Shamal Wind lobbed up at Flemington last spring and let rip on a good field of fillies, five who stepped out and won next time, and nine of them returned form that at least confirmed the form, if not boosted it, at their subsequent start.
The form was assessed at 110p with the timefigure ahead of that form and pointing towards Shamal Wind being a Group 2/3 filly.
Her autumn campaign was largely seen as a bust but despite never reaching that peak she was placed at both Group 2 and 3 level and ran to a mark of 105 behind Arinosa at Rosehill.
That form has her ahead of the handicapper here with only Anise having numbers to match, and she is now 896 days and 16 runs without a win!!
Early markets seem to be playing on the fact that she didn’t go on with it in the autumn but she won’t have to be any better to be winning today.
The Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington two weeks back is a solid looking piece of form and the three mares that come through that race look set to raffle the fifth on the Caulfield card.
Catkins, A Time For Julia and Octavia all ran well there and preference for them today is in that order.
The first two went past Octavia there and are expected to confirm the form today and there’s a good betting opportunity in play with Octavia sitting at the top of early markets.
The other two can effectively be backed at 6/4 the pair and quinellas and exactas can also be played to cash it in.
We stick with the fairer sex for the lay of the day which comes in the Thousand Guineas Prelude.
Politeness has been well spruiked from day one and she is starting to put it together this campaign, winning two from two, but things get a good deal tougher for her here and she is going to have to step up sharply on her form and figures.
Granted she is expected to do just that but the leap ahead of her to actually come out and win here seems largely undervalued by the market who make her early favourite against far better performed fillies.
Happy to be against her at the price.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL:
Banker: Race 2 #7 Shamal Wind @ $3.00
Play Of The Day: Race 5 #2/6 (play them up!!)
Lay Of The Day: Race 7 #9 Politeness @ $3.00
