Golden Pendant Day — It’s All In The Stats

Racing and Sports race analyst, Simon Dinopoulos looks at Saturday’s meeting at Rosehill from a 20 year statistical perspective.

Group 2 Shannon Stakes (1500m) — Race 6

Four of the past 20 Epsom victors have come through the Shannon Stakes. So it will be interesting to see who puts their best foot forward on Saturday.

In fact, more than half of Saturday's field remain in contention for a start in the Epsom.

However, Dalmacia remains the only horse to have completed the Shannon Stakes - Epsom Handicap double.

Epsom winners to come through the Shannon Stakes

2012 - Fat Al (3rd)

2011 - Secret Admirer (4th)

2004 - Desert War (4th)

1998 - Dodge (2nd)

Key Trainer — Gai Waterhouse

Gai Waterhouse has had a mortgage on the race in recent years having won six of the past 20 renewals (30%).

In that time she has only provided 12% of the participants — so she possesses a remarkable strike rate.

Key Jockey— Corey Brown

Corey Brown has a great record in the event. He’s won four of the past 14 renewals (29%) and rides favourite Rock Sturdy on Saturday.

Excess Knowledge (12)

Sticking with Gai Waterhouse and happy to be with Excess Knowledge.

Both career starts in Australia have been solid and expected to improve further this time in, given it is his second preparation.

On prior best form in the UK, he is very well placed, and thought his trial in the lead up was very good.

• Excess Knowledge is yet to miss the money fresh and Gai Waterhouse strikes at 20% with gallopers racing first up

• Gai Waterhouse strikes at 24% with horses racing over this distance range, and strikes at 20% at Rosehill

From the awkward draw he will probably roll forward and he shapes as a solid E/W hope.

Group 3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) — Race 1

This event should paint a clearer picture for the Spring Champion, with eight of the last 20 victors coming through the Gloaming Stakes.

Gloaming Stakes — 8 of 20 — (40%)

2013 - Complacent - Won

2012 - It's A Dundeel - Won

2011 - Doctor Doom - 2nd

2010 - Erewhon -2nd

2004 - Savabeel - 2nd

2002 - Platinum Scissors - 2nd

1999 - Fairway - Won

1996 - Magic of Sydney - Won

Of those eight, four were successful in completing the double

Thought this was quite notable from a breeding perspective. If Sweynesse can prove successful on Saturday, it will give his sire Lonhro his first Australian Group victor beyond a mile.

So while classy, the 1800m has to be some query for Sweynesse.

Diamond Valores (3)

Pretty keen on the Peter and Paul Snowden trained Diamond Valores to upset the favourite on Saturday.

Though unable to win last start, I thought his performance had merit and he should relish the step up in trip — being out of a Zabeel mare.

• The Snowden camp is in great form, striking at 26%, and are striking at 38% with gallopers rising 200m in distance

• Blake Shinn is currently striking at 44% for the Snowden camp, and has been aboard Diamond Valores at all three starts this time in.

The blinkers go on for the first time and expect him to be right in the finish.

Race 4 - Grand Marshal (4)

Lightly raced galloper who hit the line gamely to finish second last start, when bumping into an absolute mudlark in World Wide.

Showed good improvement on that occasion and appears set to peak racing third up on Saturday.

Blinkers go on for the first time and the ear muffs come off — so expect him to settle a bit closer to the speed from the rails draw.

Grand Marshal has placed in five of his last eight starts and finds a very suitable race to break through on his home track.

• Hugh Bowman sticks aboard and is currently striking at 21% for the Chris Waller stable

• The Chris Waller stable is striking at just shy of 20% with horses racing third up and overall is striking at 15% at Rosehill

• Grand Marshal is unbeaten third up and possesses an overall strike rate of 36%

Race 8 - Longma (17)

We are still banking on one final scratching to gain a start. But if things do fall his way, Longma should prove hard to beat in the last.

Only lightly raced, Longma recorded a new career peak in Queensland prior to a break, and appears to be back in good order following two solid trials in the lead up.

He is yet to miss the money fresh and does appear very well placed on best form.

• As mentioned previously, Gai Waterhouse strikes at 20% with horses racing FU and strikes at 20% at Rosehill

Drawn to receive all the favours, he should settle up on the speed and prove hard to get past in the straight.

Need a few things to go his way — but happy to be with him if he does gain a start.

Good luck and happy punting.