Current Three-year-old Crop Ready To Step Up

The current crop has a strong top-end presence, headed up by Caulfield Guineas 1-2 Shooting To Win and Rich Enuff who along with Flight Stakes winner First Seal are considered genuine Group 1 class by Timeform at 125 or better for the colts and 121 or better for fillies.

With 22 horses rated 115 and above the current crop is around the average for top-end depth, but with the loss of Rich Enuff, Shooting To Win now sits alone at the top but it remains to be seen if they have the potential during the Autumn racing to rival the better leading crops at this stage of the year such as those of 2011/12 and 2012/13 – those crops boasting five and four three-year-olds respectively Timeform rated 125 or better by season’s end.

Key horses on the fringe of group one class include smart sprinters Rubick (rated 122), Brazen Beau (121), Scissor Kick (118p), Panzer Division (120), Hallowed Crown (119), and Kuro (115+), as well as promising middle distance performers such as Sweynesse (120).

2014-5		       1st MarchRich Enuff		125
Shooting To Win        	125
First Seal		122
Rubick			122
Brazen Beau		121

By comparison heading into the autumn, the 2013/14 crop lacked depth at the top – the group had a glut of horses Timeform rated between 115-120 with 28 horses rated 115 or higher – more than the 22 this season - but none rated above 125, and none would achieve that level of form before the season was out.

Retirement and injury savaged the top-end of this crop with none of the five listed above still in training.

2013-14		       1st March	  	   EOYShamus Award		124			124
Polanski		123			123
                        

                            

                              
                            
                        
Complacent		122			122
Long John		122			122
Zoustar			122			122
Criterion		118			122

The 2012/13 group was widely considered a ‘super crop’ and by season’s end they had produced a well above average genuine Group 1 performers in the view of Timeform.

2012-13		       1 March	                    EOYAll Too Hard		127			129
Pierro			123			128
Dundeel	        	122			125
Epaulette		121			126
Proisir			121			121
Fiveandahalfstar				123
Your Song					122
Super Cool					122

Heading into the autumn carnival the Caulfield Guineas winner All Too Hard was the one to have already achieved that level of form, though several were knocking on the door.

The current crop has more top-liners at this point of the season, but will need a couple more to emerge over the autumn to match this group and especially to reach the 128/129 level achieved by the leading three-year-olds.

That said there are some similarities between the two crops. The 12/13 group was strong at the top but only average in terms of top-end depth with 21 horses (one less than the current crop) rated higher than 115 heading into the autumn.

The 2011/12 crop is probably undervalued relative to the one that followed it.

Sepoy, Atlantic Jewel, Helmet and Mosheen were all genuine Group 1 winners before Christmas including Sepoy who achieved the task against older sprinters in the Manikato Stakes, which is well ahead of the curve.

It was only one ahead of the current group at the same time, though, which further emphasises the top-end talent in the current crop.

2011-12	        	1 March	        	   EOY
Sepoy			129			129
Atlantic Jewel		128			128
Helmet			125			125
Manawanui		125			125
Mosheen	        	124			124
Smart Missile    	124			124
Foxwedge					128

While there is excellent depth in the 2014/5 crop, it appears unlikely at this stage we will finish the season with four or more three-year-olds Timeform rated 125 or above, a task made harder by losing the equal top rated galloper Rich Enuff.

Top Crops

As far as the best three-year-old crop in the last 22 years is concerned, the answer will be different depending on when it is measured and how it is measured.

If taken at the start of Autumn, based in top Timeform rating performers, the class of 2011/12 headed by Sepoy (129) and Atlantic Jewel (128) holds a narrow edge over the 2012/13 class.

However at Season’s end, clearly the class of 2012/13 regained the edge courtesy of All Too Hard (129), Pierro (128). Dundeel (125) and Epaulette (126).

However based on median Timeform ratings of the crop, Octagonal’s 1995/6 year still ranks slightly superior to either of these two crops in the same period, signifying significant high end depth in the crop as they turn four.

Finally the “acid test” is how the crop has performed against older horses at the elite level – and this gives us a slightly different view.

For example to date no horse in the current crop has managed to win against older horses at group one level, whereas the 2013/14 crop had Shamus Award as a Cox Plate winner, 2012/13 crop had All Too Hard who had won the Orr Stakes – Futurity Stakes double as well as being runner up in the Cox Plate and the 2011-12 crop had Manikato Stakes winner Sepoy.

If we judge the three-year-old crop at season’s end by this measure – two outstanding crops emerge, the 2012/13 and 1996/7 – both crops winning 11 group one races against older opponents – 2012/13 crop by eight individual horses and 1996/7 by nine individual horses.

Third placed on this measure was the 1999/00 crop who produced 10 individual group one winners against older runners.

The 1995/6 “Octagonal crop” won nine group one races against older horses from eight individual horses as did the 1998/9, 1997/8 and 2003/4.

Once again while the current crop appears to have depth at the top, they will struggle to measure up on the criteria of group one wins against older horses.