Herbert Power Provides Cup Insight — Gary Crispe

The lack of depth amongst the Australian and New Zealand bred staying ranks was again highlighted with former French-trained galloper Big Memory taking out Saturday’s 2014 G2 Herbert Power Handicap at Caulfield.

Run over 2400m, it has long been recognised as one of the prime lead up races for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups but Big Memory’s victory last Saturday comes on top of fellow French galloper, Shahwardi’s emphatic victory in 2012 and of course former UK trained Sea Moon in 2013.

First run in 1898, the Herbert Power has been an integral part of Melbourne’s spring racing carnival, the race having been won by some of the greatest stayers to grace our turf – the mighty Rising Fast in 1955 probably the most notable winner.

However since 1970, the race has possibility been a better guide to the Melbourne Cup rather than the Caulfield Cup with just two winners completing the double with the Caulfield Cup - Master O’Reilly (2007) and Beer Street (1970). However since 1898 six winners in total have completed the double, the others being Rising Fast (1955), My Hero (1953), Poseidon (1906/7) and Marvel Loch (1905).

In the last 20 years the only other Caulfield Cup winner to come through the Herbert Power was Fraar in 1993 – he had finished eighth in the Herbert Power.

Herbert Power winners to complete the Melbourne Cup double since 1970 are Rogan Josh (1999), Arwon (1978), Van Der Hum (1976) and Gala Supreme (1973). Prior to those there were two winners Sirius (1944) and Poseidon (1906) to complete the double.

In the last 20 years, the only other Melbourne Cup winner to use the Herbert Power as part of their Cup campaign was Shocking in 2009.

In terms of providing runners in both Cups – that is, runners who use the Herbert Power as part of their lead up campaigns - the telling statistic is that in the last 20 years just 29 runners have started in the Herbert Power then going onto run in the Caulfield Cup whereas 70 has gone through to contest the Melbourne Cup.

Amazingly in three of the last four years, not one Caulfield Cup runner has come through the Herbert Power, 2011 being the exception when two runners used it as their penultimate run.

This year Big Memory will be the only Caulfield Cup runner coming out of the Herbert Power as he attempts to become just the seventh horse in history to complete the double.

In assessing the race from a Timeform angle, Big Memory has performed to a new master level on Saturday at 112 - an improvement of three pounds on his last start unplaced effort in the JRA Cup behind The Cleaner.

In terms of the historical standards for the Herbert Power, Big Memory’s 112 figure sits in the mid-range of possible values, but several pounds down on the five year Timeform winning average rating.

The fact it was Big Memory’s third run back from a spell would indicate it is reasonable to assume he will improve again going into the Caulfield Cup this Saturday. And there was a lot to like about his tenacity in the straight as he kept finding when under constant siege all the way up the home straight.

Trainer Tony McEvoy has done a marvellous job with Big Memory. The longest distance he had previously raced over in Europe was 1800m but since coming under McEvoy’s care he has now won over 2500m and 2400m and improved his rating some 18 pounds.

Big Memory will meet a much stronger line up in the G1 Caulfield Cup and therefore needs to find extra to be a strong winning chance as the early indications are that a Timeform rated performance of around 120 will be required to land the Cup on the mantelpiece.

As for the Melbourne Cup, the run of the race was handed in by German raider Protectionist.

A lightly raced stayer with just nine runs under his belt and an easy winner of a below par Kergolay in France at his start prior to Saturday, this fellow showed why he is going to be a force in any staying contest down under.

Under 59kgs he closed off nicely in the last 400m of the race after changing course in the straight to be beaten less than a length. The impressive part was he ran right through the line, 20m after the finish post he was going away from his rivals.

Protectionist came here with a Timeform rating of 120 and took that to 123p on Saturday with the Melbourne Cup now firmly on his radar – a race in which he drops 2.5 kilos.

Interestingly last year another import Simenon used the Herbert Power as his lead up to the Melbourne Cup running third to Sea Moon before finishing a creditable fourth behind Fiorente in the Cup and improving his rating by four pounds.

If Protectionist makes a similar jump, he will rate as the horse to beat in the Melbourne Cup.

Ebor Handicap winner Lord Van Percy ran to form in the Herbert Power – despite running fifth beaten 2.2 lengths, he ran to a Timeform rating of 111 – within a pound of his Ebor figure.

While he will press on in search of a start in the Melbourne Cup, his run does put into perspective the chances of Mutual Regard, the horse that defeated him in the Ebor.

Under new trainer Johnny Murtagh’s guidance, in just three runs for the new yard, Mutual Regard has quickly gone to a new Timeform rating which when marked up through Lord Van Percy’s run sits around 122.

It is also worth noting that Mutual Regard conceded 5.5kgs and a 1.3 length beating to Lord Van Percy in the Ebor which when transposed across last Saturday’s Herbert Power now stands up to the strictest scrutiny.

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