Historical Analysis of the Australasian Oaks
Adelaide’s only G1 Oaks gives those fillies who may struggle at the mile and a half their chance to win an age major. The Australasian Oaks can be a hit and miss race although some have been decent gals. Usually dominated by the Victorian trainers, it is often run at good pace and with a good finish. Let’s see those recent heroines.
PROFILING THE RACE
o Only Oaks at G1 in South Australia after the SA Oaks lost status in 2005.
o Only one local winner since 2005.
o Favourites tend to go very well in the Oaks.
o While the race has lacked something of modern times, the 2011 edition saw Lights Of Heaven beat Absolutely and Southern Speed - all of whom won big races since.
o It’s been quite a back markers race in recent years. Effectively only Gallica, Rinky Dink and to some extent Zarita and Maybe Discreet were near the lead.
o The 2000m start is on a bend so wide barriers aren’t brilliant but with pace on can come from behind.
o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <13-16> - 4 times
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $8.50
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Kewney Stks (2), Adelaide Guineas (2), Auraria Stks (3), Doncaster Mile (1), MV Classic (1), 3yo f Open (1)
RECENT WINNERS
2014 - MAY'S DREAM 3f (New Approach x She’s Archie) ($3.20 fav)
Jockey: Brad Rawiller, Trainer: Darren WeirBarrier: 13, Weight: 56.0kg, Gross Time: 2:04.85
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Dead (4), Starters: 162nd: Star Fashion (56.0kg), 3rd: Scratchy Bottom (56.0kg)
Review: Darren Weir had been on an incredible roll. He was winning everywhere in Victoria and now spread things to Adelaide. But in fact all his G1 wins had come in South Australia to this stage. This was also special because the filly is out of She’s Archie who gave him his biggest result when second in the Melbourne Cup to Makybe Diva. It was a very competitive race and there was plenty of action. Rawiller rode an incredibly patient race and only got out late. She flashed through and got the bob. It was an amazing 10 minutes as Nash won a G1 in Sydney prior to this.
Barrier: 14, Weight: 56.0kg, Gross Time: 2:07.02
Margin: 2.5L, Track: Dead, Starters: 162nd: Grand Daughter (56.0kg), 3rd: La Zuma (56.0kg)
Review: The Adelaide team won their first Oaks in a while after staving off the Melbourne invaders. But interestingly it was a filly who had started a close second favourite in their very own Thousand Guineas that did the job. With a full field, and a wide draw, Dom Tourneur had to make quick decisions and decided to ride for luck. He went forward and got somewhere near them early. It wasn’t run too quickly so he made his move on the filly at the 600m getting many lengths on other leading contenders. She roared away at the 300m and left them standing.
2012 - INVEST 3f (Dehere x Unearthly) ($8)
Jockey: Peter Mertens, Trainer: Heath ConnersBarrier: 1, Weight: 56.0kg, Gross Time: 2:06.93
Margin: 0.4L, Track: Dead, Starters: 162nd: Our Miss Jones (56.0kg), 3rd: Essence (56.0kg)
Review: After a long prep and a meeting a big field, no one could be confident. But this was not a top line-up and hardly G1. Bart’s Empress Rock ran as the fav but Invest sat midfield most of the way. When they all took off, Mertens waited and in the straight took the gaps to find near a ½ length margin. The form didn’t hold up.
