Historical Analysis of the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes

Historical Analysis of the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes

DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES – G2 1600m

It is usually a tight margin in the Dato Tan Chin Nam or Feehan Stakes. It surely must be the mystic of Moonee Valley generating such drama - hard to find any other factor causing such remarkably close finishes. Let’s take a look at this important Cox Plate lead up run a little earlier in the carnival in 2014.

PROFILING THE RACE

o A definitive race for the horses who’ve shown a clear love of Moonee Valley.

o It’s not been a good race for leaders as the winners have generally come from off the pace.

o Reasonably well sized fields don’t really indicate a barrier advantage but inside gates have shown up as some assistance.

o Favoured runners have been well found and victorious.

o Horses of all ages have won recently except the 3yos who haven’t had a win since 1974.

o 9 of the last 12 winners have used the Memsie as their final lead up but none of them actually won the Memsie.

o Cox Plate winning jockeys have won 9 of the last 12 runnings.

o Only 4 of the Cox Plate winners in the last decade ran in the Feehan six weeks earlier (In the Feehan Maldivian was 4th, El Segundo was 1st, Fields Of Omagh was 5th, Makybe Diva was 2nd).

o 9 of the last 10 Feehan winners ran in the Cox Plate but only El Segundo did the MV double (Guillotine odd one out as he did not run in CP).

o Since So Called in 1978, 8 horses have done the Feehan/CP double.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $6.80

o Breakdown of winners - 7 geldings & 3 entires

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Memsie Stks (8), Liston Stks (1), Rst 91 (Adl)

RECENT WINNERS

2013 - FIORENTE 5h (Monsun x Desert Bloom) ($3.25)

Jockey: Nash Rawiller, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 2, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:37.28

Margin: 0.2L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 10

2nd: Spacecraft (59.0kg), 3rd: Lidari (59.0kg)

Review: We had known Fiorente was a good horse in England, we were shown how good in the Melbourne Cup placing, we marvelled in the All Aged placing - now we needed to see him win a race. Unlucky first up in the Memsie, he went to Valley for a sounding out of the track for the Cox Plate potential tilt. This was no great field but he still had to do the business. His main rival in betting was Super Cool and through the run that horse was off the bit a long way out. Rawiller was back and wide and wobbling around the turn like Saintly in his Cox Plate. With Valley specialists near the front, he came from 3 off them in the straight and won going away.

2012 - HAPPY TRAILS 5g (Good Journey x Madame Flurry) ($5.50)

Jockey: Glen Boss, Trainer: Paul Beshara

Barrier: 10, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:35.56

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 12

2nd: Green Moon (59.0kg), 3rd: Rekindled Interest (59.0kg)

Review: Again Happy Trails showed tactical speed by racing near the front and that helped in another tight finish in what was a very competitive race. Trailing up Saptapadi and Midas Touch, Boss pulled out before the turn to avoid a pocket but Green Moon looked like he had him cold. They singled out but the second horse’s fitness gave out and Happy Trails kicked back by a nose. Both horses would win Flemington G1s later.

2011 - REKINDLED INTEREST 4g (Redoute’s Choice x Rekindled Affair) ($7)

Jockey: Dwayne Dunn, Trainer: Jim Conlan

Barrier: 10, Weight: 58.5kg, Gross Time: 1:37.67

Margin: 1L, Track: Dead, Starters: 10

2nd: Alcopop (58.5kg), 3rd: Whobegotyou (58.5kg)

Review: As sometimes can happen they didn’t go fast with Cabeza and Magical Pearl up there. Damien Oliver on the odds on fav Whobegotyou got trapped between runners without momentum which he doesn’t like. While he was strung up, Dunn got around them and despite a late split for Whobe, the winner got the break and did the job at his favourite track.