Historical Analysis of the G2 Villiers Stakes

Historical Analysis of the G2 Villiers Stakes

VILLIERS STAKES – G2 1600m

The format for the big Randwick miles are well known but last time it was not run there. Like all the major races run over the famous course, you see big fields, high drama and fabulous finishes. The Villiers might be run in the Summer but it has produced several G1 winners and been contested by a few as well. Take a look at the recent December mile winners though some have been at Warwick Farm.

PROFILING THE RACE

o Besides Utzon’s 57.5kg weight in ’06, Monton last year (58kg) was the most carried to win since Soho Square lumped 56.5kg in ’92.

o Inside barriers have been clearly advantaged recently which isn’t always a necessity over the mile nor a Warwick Farm trend.

o Mares have won 6 times in the last 19 years.

o Last few years have seen plenty of double figure priced winners.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 5yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.0kg

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $13

o Breakdown of winners - 5 geldings, 4 mares & 1 entire

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Festival Stks (4), Eclipse Stks (1), Hawkesbury Cup (1), Handicaps (4)

RECENT WINNERS

2012 - ALL LEGAL 6g (Al Maher x Azardi) ($21)

Jockey: Glyn Schofield, Trainer: Kevin Moses

Barrier: 9, Weight: 54.0kg, Gross Time: 1:35.81

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 18

2nd: Alma’s Fury (53.0kg), 3rd: Darci Be Good (55.4kg)

Review: The race was run at Warwick Farm with the Randwick redevelopment going on and so a field of 18 was always going to mean a highly competitive race and one fraught with unlucky runners. The mare Holy Moly rolled along but had plenty of company. Schofield had All Legal back midfield needing luck and he had to wait until the 200m for a gap to appear as Monton and Darci Be Good were fighting it out. But it opened as he and Alma’s Fury swept up and he got the nose down. Thumbtacks was quite stiff.

2011 - MONTON 5g (Catbird x Dynamic Flyer) ($12)

Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Ron Quinton

Barrier: 15, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.33

Margin: 1.3L, Track: Good, Starters: 16

2nd: Kontiki Park (52.0kg), 3rd: King Lionheart (58.0kg)

Review: With Randwick out of play, the Villiers was at Warwick Farm and so from the mile start it was always going to be willing. From the gate Hugh Bowman was wide but rolling into it and under such a big weight, it was exactly what was needed. He had them covered at the furlong and held off Gai’s pair quite easily.

2010 - DANCES ON WAVES 5m (Anabaa x Ancient Lights) ($26)

Jockey: Brenton Avdulla, Trainer: Gerald Ryan

Barrier: 16, Weight: 52.0kg, Gross Time: 1:35.03

Margin: 0.2L, Track: Good, Starters: 17

2nd: Mentality (55.5kg), 3rd: Snow Alert (58.0kg)

Review: Her Rosehill and Kensington wins were indicative that she’d get the mile but given they were of much lower standard, she went around at 25-1. Drawn wide, Brenton Avdulla had her midfield and ready to charge. Still there up the rise, she unleashed and rattled over the proven Randwick miler Mentality.