Historical Race Analysis

Historical Race Analysis

MEMSIE STAKES - G1 1400m

The Memsie Stakes at Caulfield has been won by some darn fine horses. Previous years have contained a large number of new season 4yos and several G1 winners. Let’s see what this year’s Memsie might throw up as to whether it is a great Spring preview in its first renewal as a G1.

PROFILING THE RACE

o The Memsie is a race where good WFA horses win.

o It has been a top race for mares with King’s Rose, Miss Finland, Makybe Diva, Magical Miss, Sunline (twice), & Dane Ripper winning since the 1998.

o Track conditions certainly play a part but it hasn’t been disadvantageous to get back and swoop late over recent years. In fact 9 of last 10 came late up the middle of Caulfield.

o Recent Memsies have been run at fair pace but rarely are they run with breakneck speed.

o Softer barriers have helped the cause.

o Favourites have had a very good run taking 8 of last 13.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (5 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $4.60

o Breakdown of winners - 6 geldings, 1 entire & 3 mares

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Aurie’s Star (2), Liston Stks (2), Winter Champ (1), Spell (5)

o Last 10 Years - No of Caulfield Cup winners who ran in Memsie - 1

o Last 10 Years - No of Cox Plate winners who ran in Memsie - 5

o Last 10 Years - No of Melbourne Cup winners who ran in Memsie - 4

RECENT WINNERS

2012 - SINCERO 5g (Umatilla x Yours As Always) ($3.50 fav)

Jockey: Michael Rodd, Trainer: Stephen Farley

Barrier: 4, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:23.27

Margin: 2L, Track: Good, Starters: 15

2nd: Happy Trails (59.0kg), 3rd: Second Effort (59.0kg)

Review: After a short Autumn when he ran well without winning, he went to Melbourne first up. Brilliantly ridden by Michael Rodd, he went back to fence in a fast run race but worked off in the mid stages and by the time they were straightening, he was in the right part of the track. There was a class edge over the trip and a dominant victory.

2011 - KING'S ROSE 4m (Redoute’s Choice x Nureyev’s Girl) ($7.50)

Jockey: Luke Nolen, Trainer: Peter Moody

Barrier: 11, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 1:23.44

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 13

2nd: Heart Of Dreams (59.0kg), 3rd: Red Colossus (59.0kg)

Review: The former kiwi mare was first time out for Peter Moody. Camping midfield she had a lovely run in transit and tacked onto the right horse, Heart Of Dreams, who would take her into the race. Nolen got her mobile and she nabbed the second horse in the last furlong. Red Colossus was a touch unlucky and some of the stayers like Linton, Absolutely and Shamrocker ran home well.

2010 - SO YOU THINK 4h (High Chaparral x Triassic) ($6.50)

Jockey: Steve Arnold, Trainer: Bart Cummings

Barrier: 9, Weight: 58.5kg, Gross Time: 1:26.68

Margin: 0.5L, Track: Slow, Starters: 11

2nd: Whobegotyou (59.0kg), 3rd: Shoot Out (58.5kg)

Review: The champ was back for his first run since his 3yo Spring. The stable waited for the Memsie instead of running the previous fortnight and he sprung straight outside the leader Typhoon Tracy. In a slowly run race the WFA horses controlled it up front and the stayers did their best in behind. SYT collared the mare but Whobe was closer than normal. As the latter and Shoot Out, who hit his flat spot again, swooped they had their chance but the best horse showed his class to score a top first up win.