The Mail for Saturday

Dystopia can benefit from the first up run

SR 3: (6) DYSTOPIA - Talented Redoute's Choice mare will certainly have taken benefit from a strong first-up effort over 1100m at Canterbury when narrowly beaten by Tonk when racing for the first time in nine months. She is well placed on her home track where she has never missed a place in three starts and meets Tonk on 1.5kg better terms in a race that should be run to suit as there is an abundance of early speed. Her second up stats are excellent and will go close if she can produce the form that made her highly competitive against quality types like Sister Madly, Set For Fame and Lady's Angel in earlier preparations.

SR 4: (2) FISCAL - Top stable has fitted him for this suitable 2000m event with three solid efforts since resuming. He has been progressively fitter each time with his last start third over this same course and distance carrying 58kg certain to have topped him off nicely for this event where he is nicely treated with 2kg less weight. Races well at this course and distance and certain to enjoy a sweet run from his favourable draw.

SR 8: (16) SOMEPIN ANYPIN - Proved costly (again!) when finishing second over this same course and distance last start but prepared to stick with him under different circumstances this time. He didn't get the expected lead last time when his rider preferred to take the sit behind the pace, perhaps mindful that he was carrying 56.5kg, He drops to the limit of 53kg and from this wide draw Jim Cassidy really has no other option than to use his pace and lead. His peak rating performance was over 1400m at this course carrying 57.5kg when he was allowed to run from the front and this looks the race for him to reproduce that form.

ONES TO AVOID

SR 3: (5) ROSIE'S REWARD - Resumes from a long spell without the benefit of a recent trial and will be hard pressed to win first-up for her new stable from an awkward draw in a field bursting with pace.

MR 3: (5) LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT - Has to be given a chance based on the Naturalism Stks run alone. Form out of that event is stacking up all over the place with winners and placegetters. He can take up a position the further he gets into a prep once out to a trip and while he hasn't gotten to 2400m before, the Jeune damline might help him. Michelle Payne seems to get the best out of him and the stable deserves a good news story.

MR 5: (6) SINCERO - Almost a case of a total forget run last week. Many thought he could overcome that inside gate but not only does he not enjoy them, the best of the track was out wide. The Umatillas can get more than 2000m, the fitness should not be a query, he draws well for him and importantly he's backed up three times in his life (including the Stradbroke) for three wins. It's a good Yalumba without being a great one and he has a good chance.

ONES TO AVOID

MR 7: (1) MANAWANUI - This is tough on him. Not sure the Caulfield Guineas sets up as well for him as the Golden Rose turned out nor the barrier trial that was the Stan Fox. Thinking now after his dominant win that Helmet will use the same tactics which means Manawanui will have to chase the leader this time but also has Smart Missile and Chase The Rainbow tagging him into the race. Does he become the meat in the sandwich? Lovely horse but someone's got to lose.

BR 1: (6) EMMALENE - Improved nicely into her second run when going five weeks between them. She worked home well at Canterbury and this race is a touch easier. The barrier is a concern but they might roll the dice and go forward to find a spot. In a competitive race we should get fair odds.

BR 8: (9) AUDACIOUS SPIRIT - Comes off a massive trial win but importantly this is panels easier than most starts of his career. He's won first up before over this course and distance and looks to handle most track conditions as well. From a lovely gate can position up close as he's done most times and be hard to beat.

ONES TO AVOID

BR 7: (1) FEMINA FASHION - Ran an absolute cracker at big odds in the Tibbie at Newcastle first up and so will garner plenty of support on the basis of that alone. She races on pace so there might be some pressure up front. Problems might be that there is 58.5kg to lump and also that she tends to race best 1800m/2000m so some of the others might outsprint her.

MORPHETTVILLE - tips by Jason Hickson

AR 5: (3) NORDIC MONARCH - Has raced just twice for a good win then below par run before a spell. Looks well placed on his only fresh-up run and should give a big sight in the small field.

AR 7: (2) MEAISIN - Was fourth emergency at Moonee Valley Friday where he would have been top pick. Given he missed out and turns up here, he looks hard to beat from the inside draw. Has pace and going really well.

ONES TO AVOID

AR 1: (3) SHEWAN - If he happened to run here he would be all the rage on fast finishing second behind Platinum Passion last time at Caulfield. Rises sharply in weights, gets back in a small field and there are some other decent chances in the race. Think he'll be over bet however possibly runs in Melbourne.