The Mail for Saturday

Elite Falls rates as the filly to beat on her superior form from last season

SR 5: (5) DETOURS - Unbeaten filly faces her acid test with the step up to Group company against the colts but it is not a vintage Up And Coming Stakes and this choice of race reflects the confidence the stable has in her potential. She may have only beaten midweek company at Canterbury but all good horses have to start somewhere and she has made quite an impression with the way she has stamped her class on those races, responding when called on to win with plenty in hand. She will be hard to beat on her home track with her scope for natural improvement.

SR 7: (1) ELITE FALLS - Golden Slipper placegetter has to concede weight to all her rivals in the Silver Shadow Stakes but she still rates as the filly to beat on her superior form from last season when she mixed it with the likes of Sepoy, Helmet and Satin Shoes in the top Group races. She's well primed for the 1200m off a soft trial placing and her low draw should allow boom Kiwi rider James McDonald to hold her up for the late finishing sprint that was a feature of her performances last season. She looks the one to give McDonald his first Group win in Sydney.

SR 8: (4) RED TRACER - It will take a good mare to win this classy Toy Show Quality. In an open race with the majority resuming Red Tracer has a few things going for her as she appeals as the one best suited by the distance and conditions, having never been out of the money in all her nine starts up to 1400m including two excellent placings at this course. Proved herself in Group company in the autumn and her strong trial placing in a classy heat at this track last week was a confident pointer to her first-up prospects. Another key factor is her winning form in all types of going, which may be an issue in late races at this meeting.

ONES TO AVOID

SR 4: (1) NEESON - Cannot get excited about the skinny odds on offer after his first-up performance at Randwick when he clearly needed racing after his long enforced absence from racing. He'll no doubt be fitter but prefer to wait until he really puts in an effort that shows he is back to his best form.

MR 2: (6) SAYAHAILMARY - The mare may not have come back last time in but did pull out an excellent on pace run in the Armanasco behind Pinker Pinker. Being a leader is not normally a bad thing at Moonee Valley and Michael Walker is a gun jockey from in front. She seems well placed in this and sticking with the Moody yard is always the positive.

MR 6: (12) HUEGILL - Talk about top form from only one run. The More Than Ready colt had that in the Blue Diamond Prelude when leading at Caulfield. He held on well only being run down by the Golden Slipper/Blue Diamond winner Sepoy and the VRC Sires winner Running Tall. The Stable won this last year with the eventual Caulfield Guineas winner Anacheeva this horse's ratings stack up. He can find a spot near the speed and be hard to run down.

ONES TO AVOID

MR 3: (7) IRISH DREAM - Having tipped two Moody stable runners, we'll lay one as well. This mare comes down from having two wins in Brisbane during Winter. While she stays on the limit, she meets several other mares who have tasted success at MV which is always a bonus. Dangerous practice with this team but you have to be brave sometimes.

DOOMBEN - tips by Wayne Bristow

BR 2: (7) TRANSPORTER - Stable are on a roll at the moment with the Brisbane arm thriving. This one has had two kills recently by big margins coming from a long way behind. He looked good at a mile here last time and with nothing on his back, he can graduate to Saturday grade against a field who aren't exactly winning too many times.

BR 5: (3) WHAT HAPPENEDHENRY - Right back into form last run at this venue. Key to this gelding is the 1110m at Doomben. He's had three runs this C/D for two wins and also won over the shorter trip here as well. He handles all conditions, won his last two fourth up runs and looks well in coming down in weight.

ONES TO AVOID

BR 8: (7) OUR TRIPLE TREAT - Very consistent mare who rarely runs a bad race. Not missed a place in her last six efforts, and hence is always right in the betting. But even on the limit, the daughter of Savabeel seems to generally find one better no matter what grade of race she runs in.

MORPHETTVILLE PARKS - tips by Jason Hickson

AR 2: (3) LA SIROQUE - Perhaps too far back settling last time but swept around field and kept coming, running on into third. Fitter again and tends to settle closer as she gets out in trip. Looks to have come back in great order and will be winning soon.

AR 3: (8) UCHIMURA - Former Victorian who Tony McEvoy seems to have sorted now. In great form and looks well placed in this moderate race. Extra trip suits and should be hard to hold out.

ONES TO AVOID

AR 5: (2) TRIPLE TEE - Going for a hat-trick and coming off an easy win last time. But up another couple of kilos, first time at 1400m, is still in first campaign but having third run in just 16 days. Will be a third of the odds as last time and has to hit the ceiling soon.