Chris Scholtz dissects the Golden Rose plus selections, best bets and value plays for the Rosehill meeting on September 28 with Trial Watch and Blackbook Reports.
GOLDEN ROSE PREVIEW
By Chris Scholtz
What an intriguing race due to last season's outstanding colt BROADSIDING attempting to be the first to win this high class 3YO event first-up.
Since its first running in 2003 every Golden Rose winner had raced at least once as a 3YO with nine of the last 12 winners using the Run To The Rose as their lead-up race.
That says plenty for the prospects of Broadsiding's stablemate TRAFFIC WARDEN and the trio of horses that finished close behind him in the Run To The Rose (1200m) at Rosehill two weeks ago. TRAFFIC WARDEN is now bidding to be the sixth horse to win the Run To The Rose/Golden Rose double.
However Godolphin trainer James Cummings has put that historical challenge aside to focus on having BROADSIDING ready to extend his winning sequence after the colt won his last four starts as a 2YO. Those four wins - all over 1400m and 1600m - included the G1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick and G1 JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm.
Cummings says two impressive trials plus an exhibition gallop have this gun colt in the right place, taking confidence from his own Golden Rose training record of two wins and three minor placings over the last decade.
An affected surface certainly doesn't harm BROADSIDING's chances given his dominant soft and heavy track wins in the Fernhill Handicap, Champagne Stakes and QTC Sires Produce. If there is a concern - even with the masterful James McDonald as his rider - it could be his rails barrier draw as the fence is unlikely to be the place to be late in the day on a cut up surface.
The bottom line with BROADSIDING is how he rates off his Champagne Stakes and JJ Atkins wins as they are races that perennially lack substance.
Rest assured he stands as one of the highest rating JJ Atkins winners of the past 25 years while his overall figures place him not far behind recent Godolphin champion Anamoe's ratings as an early 3YO.
A G1 winner as a 2YO, Anamoe won the Run To The Rose before finishing second in the Golden Rose. He then won the Caulfield Guineas as a spring 3YO before landing another seven G1 wins over the next 18 months.
Cummings also has Caulfield Guineas aspirations for BROADSIDING and he could rise above Anamoe on the ratings scale - at least temporarily - as a spring colt if he can win the Golden Rose as it would be his third G1 win since April.
Mapping this Golden Rose is an easy exercise with three on pace runners from the Waterhouse/Bott stable STORM BOY, ANODE and MAYFAIR sure to take it up from the start and set a genuine pace.
The quicker they go the better it will be for not only BROADSIDING and TRAFFIC WARDEN. LINEBACKER, the John O'Shea/Tom Charlton runner boasting a win over BROADSIDING last season, is the horse many want to be with after his impressive first-up fourth in the Run To The Rose.
TRAFFIC WARDEN, a G2 winner of the VRC Sires Produce last season and second in the G1 ATC Sires', made a statement with his first-up win in the Run To The Rose (1200m) when he sustained a strong sprint over the last 400m to get the better of ANODE and STORM BOY with LINEBACKER finishing fast for a luckless fourth.
This time TRAFFIC WARDEN is drawn awkwardly (9) and is likely to settle further back but he benefits from a 1kg drop in weight that has him 0.5kg to 2.5kg better off against his Run To The Rose rivals.
LINEBACKER is meeting TRAFFIC WARDEN half a kilo worse but he is the "hot" horse out of the Run To The Rose after he surged to the line from last, running the fastest last 600m/200m sectionals of the day. And he would certainly have been at least a length closer over the line if his momentum had not been impeded when he had to be eased off the tiring STORM BOY in the last 50 metres.
LINEBACKER also has one performance from last season that speaks volumes for his Golden Rose chances – a classy win in the G3 Baillieu over 1400m on a Good 4 at Rosehill where he got the better of ANODE in a close finish with BROADSIDING left three lengths behind in third place. Significantly ANODE was carrying 3kg more than LINEBACKER's 55.5kg while BROADSIDING had 1kg less.
It's a result that suggests LINEBACKER and ANODE are generously priced in Golden Rose betting. Interestingly LINEBACKER will be wearing a stallion chain to help keep his temperament in check as he has a tendency to become aroused prior to his races.
This is a critical race for STORM BOY, the boom 2YO of last season who has earned high accolades with some brilliant wins in fast times but on other occasions has spoiled his chances with poor barrier manners.
Dwelling at the start has been costly as his three career defeats resulted from being unable to lead solo. They include his only start beyond 1200m when he finished three lengths back in fourth place in the ATC Sires Produce after a wide passage.
He was again beaten for the early lead after a moderate start in the Run To The Rose and his Golden Rose chances really depend on his ability to jump cleanly and cross quickly from the outside gate to clear his stablemates ANODE and MAYFAIR in the first 150m
A barrier extension that will make the robust colt more comfortable in the gates before the start will be applied for the Golden Rose. If it helps STORM BOY jump and take command of the lead we could see him produce the sort of performance we have been expecting since he smashed the clock in the Magic Millions Classic at the Gold Coast in January.
GOLDEN ROSE SELECTIONS: LINEBACKER (EW) 1; Broadsiding 2; Traffic Warden 3; Emirate 4; Anode 5; Storm Boy 6.
ROSEHILL September 28
Heavy 8; Rail True
Best Bets
RACE 4 (12) MARE OF MT BULLER: Promising mare laid the platform for her 4YO season with strong Group performances at the Queensland carnival. Made a classy return from her short spell to finish a close third behind Firestorm over 1500m at this course two weeks ago when she conceded 2kg to her stablemate and must be favoured to turn the tables over this more suitable trip with a 4.5kg weight swing in her favour. She's the best value among the strong Waller team in this field as the affected track presents no concerns and her second up record cannot be faulted.
RACE 7 (4) SEMANA: At her best on affected tracks and her ability to sit close gives her the tactical advantage in a classy mares contest. She rates to win as she's favourably weighted with 55kg after contesting five successive G1 races for three placings against the likes of Bella Nipotina, Fangirl, Via Sistina and Zougotcha. The last time she raced at Rosehill she finished a close second in the G1 Coolmore Classic on a soft track and the five weeks freshen since her last start fourth in the Winx Stakes fits her pattern of having her races well spaced leading into her peak performances.
RACE 10 (11) PHARARI: Connections of this flying Melbourne mare passed up a Moonee Valley option to send her north for her Sydney debut, no doubt due to her liking for affected ground as she has won her two starts on soft and heavy tracks by a combined total of almost 14 lengths. Posted her third win in six starts when she toyed with midweek rivals over 1000m at Sandown under 59.5kg and is sure to take catching with 3kg less. Suspect she is going to rise a lot higher than this class.
Selections
RACE 1: (12) UNIQUE AMBITION; (4) The Extreme Cat; (18) Alabama State; (6) Danish Prince
RACE 2: (15) DUE CALZINI; (1) Everido; (8) Hulu; (4) Straight Fire
RACE 3: (2) STRATHTAY; (5) First Light; (7) Campaldino; (1) Changingoftheguard
RACE 4: (12) MARE OF MT BULLER; (7) Firestorm; (8) Unusual Legacy; (9) Lincoln Rocks
RACE 5: (3) GATSBY'S; (8) Winning Proposal; (6) Ikasara; (2) Althoff
RACE 6: (14) CADETSHIP; (21) Iron Man; (2) Ruby Flyer; (12) Willaidow
RACE 7: (4) SEMANA; (2) Amelia's Jewel; (6) Makarena; (7) Arctic Glamour
RACE 8: (4) LINEBACKER; (1) Broadsiding; (2) Traffic Warden; (8) Emirate
RACE 9: (14) AMOR VICTORIOUS; (8) Bases Loaded; (7) New Energy; (1) Celestial Legend
RACE 10: (11) PHARARI; (10) Peace Treaty; (15) Martini Mumma; (17) Tanglewood
Why They Can Win….
RACE 1: (12) UNIQUE AMBITION - Excellent fresh record and lengths better on soft ground. Well placed this class and a quiet trial has her ready to perform.
RACE 2: (15) DUE CALZINI - Promising 3YO with the talent to win better races. Set to improve sharply after getting no favours first-up from wide draw.
RACE 3: (2) STRATHTAY - Stays well with give in the ground. Forgive last start when pace and conditions played against him.
RACE 5: (3) GATSBY'S – Too keen last time on a firm track. Softer ground suits.
RACE 6: (14) CADETSHIP - Racing well in this class. Good draw and soft track play to his strengths.
RACE 8: (4) LINEBACKER - Beat Anode and Broadsiding over this course and distance last season. His fast closing fourth in the Run To The Rose was the best trial.
RACE 9: (14) AMOR VICTORIOUS - Strong leader with excellent course/distance credentials. Expect him to run hard under his light weight with blinkers on first time.
TRIAL WATCH REPORT
NOTED TRIAL RUNNERS – September 27-28
ROSEHILL SATURDAY: Iron Man (R6); Broadsiding (R8)
KEMBLA GRANGE SATURDAY: Brazil (R7); Late Night Talking (R7)
RECENT TRIAL WATCH WINNERS: Swift Falcon; Creek; Zoubaby; Amelita; Ellipsis; Sunshine In Paris; Lady Shenandoah; Traffic Warden; Dashing Rupert; Opal Fields; Royal Patronage; Watch My Girl; Deconstruction; Briasa; Storm Boy; Asuriita; Last Command; Spirit Of Wealth; Countyourblessings; Kimochi; Via Sistina; Ameena; Joliestar; Wave Breaker; Agenda Setter
TRIAL POINTERS
HAWKESBURY September 17: Another strong trial from G1 star BROADSIDING will have him primed for the start of his spring campaign. He followed up his impressive second in a Rosehill trial over 900m with another excellent piece of work, running home under a cold ride from James McDonald to finish second in his 1000m heat (58.35; 33.20. Progressive 4YO IRON MAN was a standout winner in his heat. I am certain more wins are in store for this lightly raced 5YO gelding after he sprinted away with his open heat over 1000m. He tracked into it three wide from midfield approaching the turn and let down with a fast last 200m to score under a big hold by three lengths (59.02; 32.87).
ROSEHILL September 5: Champagne Stakes and JJ Atkins winner BROADSIDING is primed to start his spring with a bang after a classy second in his 900m heat (54.27; 34.52). He was 10 lengths off the winner on the turn but oozed class getting into his work over the last 150m to be just over a length away at the finish. Surged through the line under a big hold from James McDonald.
BLACKBOOK REPORT
ELIGIBLE BLACKBOOK RUNNERS – September 27/28
ROSEHILL SATURDAY: Victory Lane (R1); First Light (R3); I'm A Dirty Rascal (R4); Fay's Angels (R4); Althoff (R5); Suparazi (R6); Arctic Glamour (R7); Linebacker (R8); Osipenko (R9)
TOOWOOMBA SATURDAY: Zhuang Shi (R5); Drammatica (R4); Devastating (R6)
SANDOWN SATURDAY: Symphony Of Colour (R5); Holymanz (R7)
DUBBO SUNDAY: Hollywood Hero (R7); Thunderlips (R7)
BLACKBOOKERS – Selected September 21
(Follow for next 3 starts)
DECLICHY BOULEVARD; GRINGOTTS; MATRIARCH ROSE; REY MAGNERIO; STEFI MAGNETICA;
RECENT BLACKBOOK WINNERS: Naval Trader; Moravia; Aviatress; Unlimited; Sunshine In Paris; Unusual Legacy; Spring Lee; Ceolwulf; The Englishman; Boom Torque; Kundalini; Daytona; Hellavadancer; Yorkshire; Amigo; House Of Cards; Shiny New Deel; Invader Zim; Rogue Bear; Piastri; Madame Odette; Kapakiri; Batrana
