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Timeform Recap: 3YO Leaderboard Heats Up

With a pair of Group 1 Guineas' on the schedule the first weekend in March was always shaping as a 'moving day' in the race to be Timeform's Champion three-year-old.

Palentino holds out Tarzino in the Australian Guineas
Palentino holds out Tarzino in the Australian Guineas Picture: Racing and Sports

The Australian Guineas went the way of Palentino who found himself in a truly run contest and delivered a performance that returned him a rating of 120, dragging him up into his generation's top five.

A rating of 120 matches the winning performance of Wandjina last season and sits right in line with the recent winning average in the Australian Guineas.

Of course, there was a protest, but Palentino survived this time and Tarzino - sixth on the leaderboard - had to settle for second, running to his Derby-winning rating of 119.

Tarzino settled for second at Flemington but his run was fairly ominous for the weeks ahead where he should be seen as the number one seed for the Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby.

The 'flop' was the New Zealand visitor Xtravagant who failed to run up to his best form after being sent out a 7/4 favourite.

He certainly added some intrigue and excitement to the race, coming across with a big reputation, a big rating, and plenty of fanfare - the name Xtravagant suits him ideally.

The Australian Guineas was high pressure, and Xtravagant was up the front generating that pressure. Sectional times pointed to him having overdone it, as did a race within a race, the on-speed battle between Xtravagant and Mahuta.

Mahuta crumbled late just as Xtravagant did, and the margin between the pair at the finish was right in line with their respective ratings heading into the race.

The high pressure theme continued up at Randwick - and then some.

Balmain Boy led an early charge around the Randwick mile and took the field along for the ride - a ride that ended with some very tired horses.

Le Romain clings on in a high pressure Randwick Guineas
Le Romain clings on in a high pressure Randwick Guineas Picture: Racing and Sports

Le Romain came out the winner and made his way onto the three-year-old leaderboard with a rating of 118 - just a couple of pounds shy of the Australian Guineas winner Palentino.

As was the case at Flemington we saw a favourite go under, this time with an incredibly constricted SP of $1.30.

Press Statement was beaten but did his bubble burst? He was held up in traffic but the common view seemed to be that he was out in time to run down Le Romain - the horse he had toyed with two weeks earlier in the Hobartville.

Out in time to the visual perhaps, but the tempo of this race was outlier fast, this was not a normal circumstance. The closing 600m was a slog to the line, a battle of who could slow the slowest. When Press Statement got clear he, along with the rest of the field, was gassed, and slowing down. He was never going to pick up and sprint by Le Romain under that circumstance and so it may pay to be forgiving.

It could actually be seen as a boost to Press Statement with Le Romain's win putting some meat on the bones of the Hobartville form.

By Timeform's measurement Press Statement had a margin of seven pounds on Le Romain in the Hobartville. A margin of seven pounds on a 118 horse hints at Press Statement potentially going into the mid 120's and that is where is needs to be if he is going to be a factor in races that are likely to be on his schedule over the next couple of months.

For now Press Statement remains rated 120 and in a tie for fifth with Palentino on the three-year-old leaderboard.

The other Group 1 on the card also went the way of the classic generation with Holler able to lead all the way in the Canterbury Stakes.

Holler now has two weight-for-age wins to his name this campaign - as many as the entire three-year-old crop could win between them last season.

Holler skips away with the Canterbury Stakes
Holler skips away with the Canterbury Stakes Picture: Racing and Sports

This wasn't a brutal test but it wasn't gift wrapped for Holler either and the win deserves plenty of credit. 123 pounds worth of credit on Timeform's scale and that sees Holler skip up to third on the leaderboard behind only his highly regarded stablemate Exosphere and Japonisme.

That trio met earlier in the year in a white hot Run To The Rose and little split Holler and Japonisme as they ran third and fourth behind the dominant Exosphere.

Press Statement was second in the race and while no match for Exosphere he had the measure of Holler and Japonisme - another push for Press Statement's potential to improve into the mid 120's perhaps.

In the Canterbury Stakes First Seal and Kermadec filled the placings, both below their best but doing enough to get a pass mark heading towards bigger goals in the autumn.

The same couldn't be said for Criterion who turned in his lowest rating since the 2013 Golden Rose, failing to beat runner home.

Criterion ran to 103 on Saturday, a rating he has bettered in each of his last 25 runs, and now has to bounce back in a big way if he's going to be a factor in the George Ryder and QEII.

The Challenge Stakes also went the way of the three-year-olds.

There were no First Seal's or Kermadec's among the older horses in the Challenge but solid older sprinters Boss Lane and Shiraz are both well performed over the Randwick 1000m, and both turned up to play on Saturday, so the efforts of English and Kinglike to run 1-2 in the race were full of merit.

English stretches right out late in the Challenge
English stretches right out late in the Challenge Picture: Racing and Sports

Neither of that pair hit the leaderboard with performances rated 112p and 114p respectively but they have certainly set a platform to make a run at it in the weeks ahead.

English has genuine acceleration, which not only makes her exciting but leaves her with a high ceiling. 112 may do little justice to her true ability in the long run but thankfully we can expect to see what's really under the bonnet when she heads to the T.J Smith Stakes where a clash with the nation's best sprinters is in the offing.


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