Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers
Betting Strategy
BACK: (WIN) Penrith at $1.70+
What an epic Grand Final we have in store with two generational teams squaring off. The Storm play in their 11th decider of the Bellamy era while the Panthers are playing in their fifth straight decider as they chase four straight premierships.
The Panthers enter this decider as the superior defensive side, ranking 1st conceding just 16.42ppg. They had the sixth best attack, scoring 24.17ppg.
The Storm, who finished top of the ladder, ranked second in scoring with 28.83ppg. They ranked fourth in defence, allowing 18.71ppg.
Penrith will be unchanged from the team that downed Cronulla while Melbourne have lost behemoth Nelson Asofa-Solomona to suspension.
Betting in this is incredibly surprising with Penrith opening as marginal outsiders.
The outsider role is not a bad place to be though with the outsider covering six of the last nine. One notable angle is defensive ranking and when there is a differential of at least three between the teams, as is the case this year, the better defensive team has won and covered all three, succeeding by margins of 16 or more.
The Storm have won the two meetings this year but the Panthers had fair excuses in both. When these teams last met in a final, Penrith won 38-4.
With the Panthers covering nine of 12 when $1.80 or longer and having covered seven of eight finals, they are a clear bet.
BACK (TOTAL POINTS) Under 40.5 at $1.80+
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL
The Clive Churchill Medal is awarded to the best player in the NRL Grand Final and has typically followed a particular trope with International/Origin players winning this award almost exclusively. The player almost exclusively comes from the winning team. No player has ever won in back-to-back years. No outside back has ever won. No bench player has ever won. No prop or hooker has won across the last 15 years. Spine players have won the last seven.
So who does that leave us with?
Origin/International Tier 1 Players (Won 34 of 38)
Penrith: Edwards, To'o, Luai, Cleary, Leota, Fisher-Harris, Martin, Yeo
Melbourne: Coates, Munster, Hughes, Grant
You cannot win without being an Origin or International player. Ryan Papenhuyzen defied that in 2020 and Dylan Edwards in 2022 but history is against it happening.
Outside Backs To Rule Out (Never Won)
Penrith: To'o
Melbourne: Coates
Props to Rule Out (Not Won since 2008)
Penrith: Leota, Fisher-Harris
Melbourne: –
The Final List
The Clive Churchill Medal winner will come from these players:
- Dylan Edwards
- Jarome Luai
- Nathan Cleary
- Liam Martin
- Isaah Yeo
- Cameron Munster
- Jahrome Hughes
- Harry Grant
Betting Strategy
BACK: (CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDALIST) Nathan Cleary @ $3.50+
No player has ever won three Churchill Medals and no player has won two in a row but the Panthers and Cleary have made a mockery of history of late. His second half performance last year was all-time and even with a bad shoulder stood tall as the best player on the field against the Sharks. Penrith go through one player and it is Cleary.
Penrith lift for big games and that is backed up by the numbers. The Panthers are 20-11 against the spread against Top 4 teams while they have covered six of seven finals over the last three years. Cronulla, by contrast, have covered just three of 15 against Top 4 opposition with a 4-8 cover record against Penrith and Melbourne. This is all lining up for a big Penrith win.
BACK (CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDALIST) Harry Grant @ $9.00+
The best value of the Storm lot with Jahrome Hughes very short. Grant has been flying of late and Grand Finals should suit him. He is a big moment player – though hookers don't have a great record.
BACK (CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDALIST) Liam Martin @ $19.00+
Martin is probably the least likely of the qualifiers to win but Penrith are well-fancied to win, he plays big minutes, he can score a try and he is an impact player. He is worth a few shekels at big odds.
GRAND FINAL TRYSCORERS
Betting Strategy
BACK (FIRST TRY SCORER) Paul Alamoti at $14.00+
Centres have crossed first in three of the last four Grand Finals – the span of Penrith's time at the top – and the biggest defensive weakness on the field is the Storm right edge defence. Alamoti comes off a double and has had a very good tryscoring season in his first in Panthers colours.
BACK (FIRST TRYSCORER) Harry Grant at $16.00+
Unfashionable hookers Mitch Kenny and Sam Verrills have both scored first in the decider in the last five years so happy to go with Harry Grant, who is in good tryscoring nick. Grant has 11 tries this year and five in his last four matches.
BACK (LAST TRYSCORER) Sunia Turuva at $8.50+
Wingers have scored the final try in four of the last nine Grand Finals so looking to one of the favourites. Turuva is up against Will Warbrick, a defensive liability. With 16 tries in 22 games this year he is one of most likely scorers.
BACK (LAST TRYSCORER) Nathan Cleary at $15+
Nathan Cleary has scored the final try in two of the last four Grand Finals. His tryscoring skews heavily to the second half. With such a good finals tryscoring record he is the value play for last tryscorer.
BACK (TO SCORE A TRY) Paul Alamoti To Score A Try at $2.80+
There have been 56 tries scored in Grand Finals over the last decade and 13 have been scored by centres with only a single decider (2019) not featuring a try from one of the starting centres. Alamoti has seven tries in 15 games for Penrith including a double this year.
BACK (TO SCORE A TRY) Jarome Luai To Score A Try at $3.30+
Jarome Luai is not a noted tryscorer but across the last seven deciders, five-eighths have crossed six times. With four tries since Round 10, Luai is scoring frequently enough.
LAY (TO SCORE A TRY) Eliesa Katoa To Score A Try at $4.50+
Eli Katoa has had a sublime season for the Storm and it has been full of tries with 12 in 24 games. Edge backrowers are the most overrated plays in Grand Finals too with no edge backrower scoring since 2017 and only two crossing in the last decade.
LAY (TO SCORE A TRY) Isaah Yeo To Score A Try at $12.00 or Shorter
Locks don't score in Grand Finals with just a single try scored by a No.13 across the last decade. Yeo has just two tries this season and has not score against a Top 8 team in over 12 months.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
National Rugby League – NRL Tips and Predictions
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