Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
Penrith v Sydney Roosters
Betting Strategy
BACK PENRITH -7.5 @ $1.70 or better
There is some trust that will need to be taken laying points to be with Penrith after their abhorrent performance last week but Nathan Cleary back in the team and the Panthers this time of year brings that trust. One of the key guides here is the Roosters against the Panthers and Storm, who have just three covers in their 16 clashes the last four years. Penrith are 16-7 against the spread off scoring 18 or fewer while the Roosters have covered just six of 19 off scoring 36-plus.
Melbourne v Cronulla
Betting Strategy
BACK CRONULLA +8.5 @ $1.70 or better
The Storm were runaway minor premiers but the Sharks will still fancy their chances of heading to Melbourne and pulling off the upset. Cronulla have won two of their last three against Melbourne including a 25-18 victory at AAMI Park when these two last met. Cronulla are 16-9 against the spread as an underdog of at least a try while they have covered eight of 10 interstate. The Storm have covered just three of 10 at AAMI.
North Queensland v Newcastle
Betting Strategy
BACK NEWCASTLE +6.5 @ $1.75 or better
Elimination finals tend to be close and this line is far too big. The Knights have been playing at a very high level of late and took their game to the next level to get into the finals with a stunning win over the Dolphins.
LAY NORTH QUEENSLAND @ $1.55 or shorter
Newcastle are a great travelling team with 13 covers in their last 17 interstate games while they are 10-2 against the spread on the road. The Cowboys are hot and cold and have covered just three of 14 at home. Newcastle are more than a puncher's chance.
Canterbury v Manly
Betting Strategy
BACK MANLY @ $1.75 or better
Manly murdered Canterbury two weeks back and there is no reason they can't do something similar again this week. Canterbury have lost Josh Addo-Carr while Manly welcome back Tom Trbojevic. The Bulldogs are a better defensive unit but the Sea Eagles have won 10 of the last 11 against the Bulldogs with nine covers in that run. They have also covered 11 of 14 as an underdog. Manly should be favourites – and by kickoff they likely will be.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
National Rugby League – NRL Tips and Predictions
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