Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
Brisbane v Melbourne
Betting Strategy
BACK MELBOURNE -14.5 @ $1.70 or better
Melbourne have completely dominated Brisbane for most of the last two decades and have recalled their starters after resting most of them last week to add one more nail to Brisbane's coffin. The Storm are 38-6 in the last 44 meetings with 25 covers in the last 34. They have won 13 of the last 14 at Suncorp and the last four have all been by double digits. Top 4 teams off a loss cover at 85% and the Storm have covered six of seven interstate. If they get on top early they will steamroll Brisbane.
Wests Tigers v Parramatta
Betting Strategy
BACK WESTS TIGERS +3.5 @ $1.80 or better
The Spoon Bowl shapes as one for the ages with two teams squaring off with the winner avoiding the spoon and the loser collecting it. Parramatta have had the best of this matchup with nine wins in the last 11 but the Tigers seem more settled. They had a bye so should be better prepared. The Tigers have covered their last two at Campbelltown and six of nine off scoring 30-plus. The Eels have covered just two of eight off a win.
South Sydney v Sydney Roosters
Betting Strategy
BACK UNDER 53.5 @ $1.75 or better
The top play in this one is the under. Five of the last six between these two have tallied 44 or fewer. The under hits at 62.1% bottom four teams off a loss of seven or more over the final third of the season. The under is 7-3 when the Roosters are a double digit favourite off a loss.
LAY SYDNEY ROOSTERS @ $1.45 or shorter
The Roosters have been completely gutted by injury and have lost five starters this week. They still wheel out a more talented team than Souths, who have lost Jack Wighton, but look very short for a team off a defeat and with so many starters sidelined. The Chooks have covered just seven of 22 as a double digit road favourite and just one of five at Accor.
St George Illawarra v Canberra
Betting Strategy
BACK ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA -2.5 @ $1.65 or better
To call the Dragons pathetic last week with their season on the line against Parramatta would be an understatement. They were downright horrific and their season is all but over now. They will want to perform this week though if the public bake from Shane Flanagan is indicative of many of their futures at the club. This is a handy spot. The Dragons have covered six straight against the Raiders. They are also 13-7 against the spread at Kogarah and have covered four of five off conceding 36-plus. The Raiders are 9-24 against the number against teams outside the Top 8.
Canterbury v North Queensland
Betting Strategy
BACK NORTH QUEENSLAND +2.5 @ $1.85 or better
The Bulldogs and Cowboys on Saturday evening is going to be critical to the makeup of the Top 8 and likely who ends up playing Manly – potentially on the road – and who hosts either the Dolphins or Newcastle. Winning is critical. The Bulldogs have been done no favours with Matt Burton ruled out with a HIA and Bronson Xerri out through suspension. The Cowboys have covered four straight as an underdog and eight of 11 interstate and look the play.
Penrith v Gold Coast
Betting Strategy
BACK PENRITH -18.5 @ $1.75 or better
All the money has been on the Panthers in this one and if the Titans play like they have the last three weeks. Gold Coast have lost David Fifita, to make their impossible task even more difficult. Penrith are 15-8 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8 while they are 25-16 against the number at home. Gold Coast have covered just 11 of 32 interstate. Penrith should win this by plenty.
Manly v Cronulla
Betting Strategy
BACK CRONULLA +1.5 @ $1.70 or shorter
Manly have lost Tom Trbojevic and Jason Saab and the loss of Trbojevic makes the Sharks the play in this one as the Sea Eagles have a dire history without Turbo. Cronulla have covered five of the last six meetings against the Sea Eagles and could potentially be in line to win a home final if things break their way. Top 4 teams off a loss cover at 85% post-Round 21 while the Sharks are 22-14 against the spread as an underdog.
Newcastle v Dolphins
Betting Strategy
BACK DOLPHINS +2.5 at $1.70 or better
Nobody knows how to press the right buttons when than Wayne Bennett and boy did he get the Phins up to annihilate the Broncos last week. Some key team changes worked a treat. That can carry over against a Knights outfit with limited upside. The Dolphins are 20-13 against the spread as an underdog while the Knights are 4-8 against the spread off a win of 20 or more.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
National Rugby League – NRL Tips and Predictions
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