About this time each Spring trainers decide whether to go handicapping or to WFA races and the Underwood is decider.

Glory in the staying Cups at Caulfield and Flemington can be shown up here? Examining recent Underwoods might give us an idea of a Spring entrant's likely passage.

• 2006 – EL SEGUNDO 5g (Pins x Palos Verdes) ($3 fav)

Jockey: Darren Gauci, Trainer: Colin Little

Barrier: 7, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.56, 600m Sectional: 34.65

Margin: 2.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 15

2nd: Polar Bear (58.0kg), 3rd: Molotov (58.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 122

Colin Little had generally been conservative with his horses and El Segundo was no exception. Always putting the horse first, he would prefer not to go to the well too often. The previous Spring, El Segundo went quickly through his grades, so quickly that he bolted the Yalumba Stks in leaving his trainer little option but to run in the Caulfield Cup where he didn't quite handle the pressure. Be it maturity or just the necessary time to get over a few niggling injuries, he came back a must better horse. A slashing run in the Aurie Star was accompanied by the Memsie win. At 1800 he was dynamic and loved the pace being set by Casual Pass who led easily from Roman Arch. Serenade Rose and Our Smoking Joe had good tags but when the pace slowed at the 1000m, the concertina effect didn't help those held up behind the leaders. Darren Gauci used the versatility of El Segundo by getting him rolling 600 out and unleashed his turn of foot, sprinting brilliantly past a field of stayers. The Cox Plate would elude him by a pimple.

• 2007 – RUBISCENT 5g (Rubiton x Skyescent) ($41)

Jockey: Danny Nikolic, Trainer: Mick Price

Barrier: 13, Weight: 59.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.08, 600m Sectional: 35.93

Margin: 1.3L, Track: Good, Starters: 13

2nd: Miss Finland (55.5kg), 3rd: Marasco (59.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 122

Nothing like the win of an absolute bolter to shake up the plans of the racing fraternity. Rubiscent was a good, honest handicapper – well that's at least the view of his trainer Mick Price as he had been sending him around in mile races until he ran 7th, 3 lengths in a Listed race behind Ice Chariot. That can hardly be construed as an ultimate formline for a G1 WFA test. Betting suggested a two horse war with Williams on Miss Finland (10-9f) and Beadman on Marasco (13-8) investigating each others moves and trying to counter them. Dane Empire worked forward and roared away at the half way mark allowing Nikolic to get the slipstream. While Miss Finland got caught three wide, Rubiscent covered the leaders on the turn then the undeniable Nikolic-Underwood juggernaut offered up another successful amalgamation. The favourites worked home but it was far too late while Eskimo Queen was very unlucky being held up at a crucial stage.

• 2008 – WEEKEND HUSSLER 4g (Hussonet x Weekend Beauty) ($1.53 fav)

Jockey: Brad Rawiller, Trainer: Ross McDonald

Barrier: 3, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.86, 600m Sectional: 36.97

Margin: 0.8L, Track: Dead, Starters: 13

2nd: Pompeii Ruler (59.0kg), 3rd: Littorio (58.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 129

This was his finest moment of the Spring. Sure he had won the Memsie and Makybe Diva but this was his acid test as it was first crack beyond the mile. His dam side said he should get the trip. In the race Maldivian led but he had Weekend Hussler outside Light Fantastic next and Pompeii Ruler behind them. The grey horse was gone on the turn showing his form was overrated. Before the turn Michael Rodd tried to get away but the Hussler and Ruler challenged then strode past at the furlong. Rawiller coaxed the good horse to hold them off and he made it G1 Number seven. Littorio was the eye catcher while Viewed worked home well? You wouldn't think it but that is the last time Weekend Hussler has won since then.

• 2009 – HEART OF DREAMS 4g (Show A Heart x Academy Of Dreams) ($10)

Jockey: Craig Newitt, Trainer: Mick Price

Barrier: 4, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.54, 600m Sectional: 36.49

Margin: 0.4L, Track: Dead, Starters: 16

2nd: Whobegotyou (58.0kg), 3rd: Predatory Pricer (58.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 126

Heart of Dreams only had a light Autumn but it was definitely fruitful. On a emotional day, Craig Newitt rode him a treat to win the Australian Guineas and he then came north to defeat a top line up in the Phar Lap at Rosehill. Ironically the placings would be exactly the same in this Underwood. This was one of the strongest fields of the Spring and Typhoon Tracy ran them along. So much so that Maldivian was kept wide all the way. Newitt produced HOD at the right time, coming up the middle of Caulfield with Whobe. The new father celebrated a win that would elevate the horse to near favouritism for the Cox Plate.

• 2010 – SO YOU THINK 4h (High Chaparral x Triassic) ($1.90 fav)

Jockey: Steve Arnold, Trainer: Bart Cummings

Barrier: 2, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 1:49.54, 600m Sectional: 34.32

Margin: 2.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 11

2nd: Dariana (56.0kg), 3rd: Metal Bender (59.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 130

Now this was an absolute walk in the park. Off his strong Memsie win he was still a fresh horse kicking out and squealing, indicating he was a way off his best this time in. But in this race he was a long way the best horse over this trip. He did get out of the gates OK but sat on the pace behind Zavite, Red Ruler and Metal Bender. Arnold got him mobile from the one by one, took over before the bend and came away hardly even touched. With the stable mate Dariana working home nicely, it was another quinella for Bart in a big race. It was also a sign of the dominance to come in the WFA contests of the Spring. Nothing else could go with him.

RACE PROFILE

o Danny Nikolic has won four Underwoods since 1997.

o Three years in a row the Underwood winner did the double winning the Caulfield Cup (Northerly, Mummify, Elvstroem).

o Race has been dominated by horses racing on the speed. Furthest back in the run in recent times has been El Segundo and he just swamped them.

o No clear pattern with the barriers but the race often contains a few distance handicappers who can't take up a forward position anyway.

o Favourites haven't gone on with the job very often.

o Last mare to win was Tristarc in 1985.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner – 4yo (5 times)

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <1-4> - 4 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner – $8.30

o Breakdown of winners – 8 geldings + 2 entires

o Last 10 Years Memsie Stks / Underwood Stks double – So You Think ('10), Weekend Hussler ('08), El Segundo ('06)

o Last 10 Years (Craiglee) Makybe Diva Stks / Underwood Stks double – Weekend Hussler ('08), Northerly ('02)

o Last 10 Years Doomben Cup / Underwood Stks double – Perlin ('05)

o Last 10 Years (Feehan) Dato Tan Chin Nam Stks / Underwood Stks double – Northerly ('01)

o Last 10 Years SA Derby / Underwood Stks double – Mummify ('03)

o Last 10 Years Australian Guineas / Underwood Stks double – Heart of Dreams ('09)

SUMMARY & SELECTIONS

Naturally we won't get as good a winner as last year. He was a star.

This year is very even as are the entire WFA group of older horses. We haven't seen how they'll handle the 3yos yet so they should go for the G1 now.

The Underwood is where we start to decide on what path we want to go down in the Spring – WFA or handicapping.

Perhaps Lights Of Heaven tries to keep out of harm's way from the good barrier and be up there along with Heart Of Dreams, Lion Tamer, Glass Harmonium and Midas Touch. There might be a few wanting a forward place.

That might allow the race to fall the way of a swooping type and Playing God just knocked up in Makybe Diva having been there to challenge a furlong out.

From the wide gate there will be no pressure early and can track them up down the side. Third up he was placed in the Australian Cup in the Autumn and the previous prep was a win in the WA Guineas.

This will decide if he goes to the Caulfield Cup or the Cox Plate.

While Heart Of Dreams always seems to find one better in any race he contests, the one set up he excels at is the 1800m at Caulfield.

His St George and Underwood wins beforehand are his only victories since his 3yo season. King's Rose has re-confirmed that form.

Not sure just how he'll like Caulfield but watch out Maluckyday doesn't improve sharply. He just needs ground and swooping as he'll have to will suit.

He could easily firm for the Cups off this given his profile.

Selection: (9) PLAYING GOD

Hardest to Beat: (3) HEART OF DREAMS

Best Roughie: (4) MALUCKYDAY