Let me start by saying I’ve only just peeled myself off the Sapphire Coast betting ring floor after looking up and seeing that Noogoora Burr won last weekend.
If ever there was a gentle reminder to just how hard this game can be, that was it.
Otherwise it was a pretty good day last at Doomben last weekend.
Excellantes confirmed he was back in good form this campaign, Agitate resumed with a soft win and Hi Son bounced back with a strong performance staking claim to being one of the better stayers getting around up there.
Anyway, I like the look of tomorrow’s card so let’s get cracking.
Firstly let’s stick with Rocky King in the 1000m sprint, where he’s come up as the $2.90 favourite in race four.
The 1000m at Eagle Farm is what Rocky King’s all about, and he proved it again two weeks ago when leading them all the way to finish 1.5L clear carrying a kilogram more than what he’s copped today.
He rates clear at the weights again today on that performance, and will likely skip out to the front again today from his inside gate.
The only difference today is that fellow star Queensland sprinter Adebisi is in action and he’s a very hard horse to lead.
In which case jockey Eddie Wilkinson might well just take a sit on the rail.
He should get a firmer track today which will suit and on current form he looks very hard to turn over.
Seeking More looks the biggest danger after coming through the same race where he ran second to Rocky King.
He had nothing go right on that occasion – checked at the 600m then held up for half the straight. Once he found clear air he surged home, although he does meet Rocky King a kilogram worse off here.
Stick with Rocky King today and hopefully build yourself a bit of a quaddie bank.
The bet of the day comes in race 7, the Class 6 Handicap over 1400m where Robert Heathcote’s Jopa has come up a $10 shot.
He looks ready to win one now after some horrible luck in his last couple, and that looks a superb price.
His record suggests that Eagle Farm is not his favourite track but his run here two weeks ago tells a different story.
In the last race on the card on a wet track, Jopa sat four wide throughout over this trip, came even wider around the bend and still managed to run on strongly out wide to miss by less than a length behind the impressive Anna Lizzie.
She runs earlier on the card tomorrow, so that should give some gauge as to the strength of that run.
Jopa generally likes firmer tracks and he should get a better surface today.
He’s also carrying a kilogram less and shouldn’t find this race any tougher.
Barrier 11 is a concern, but he’s shown he can sustain wide runs in the past so with a bit of luck he should be okay out there.
Spatha and Cum Dividend are all in reasonable form and shouldn’t be taken lightly, but at the $10, Jopa is definitely worth a throw at the stumps.
Now I’m required to toss up a lay of the day every week, and I’m pretty keen on a lot of the favourites up there tomorrow so I must confess I haven’t done this with any real conviction.
But anyway, it might be worth taking it easy with Sea Red in race six at the $3.60.
He was well supported in the wet here two weeks ago and was very disappointing, settling at the rear and making only steady ground late on into seventh.
He faces a similar assignment today, and for all of her potential she’s still probably a little unproven.
Don’t get me wrong, her first two wins this campaign were impressive and Heathcote believes she might just be his Queensland Oaks filly.
But with the likes of Secret Harmony, Hot Saga, Simply Chanel and Red Cent all capable in a race like this, maybe the $3.60 is just a bit too skinny.
All the best.
BANKER: Race 4 No 2 Rocky King @ $2.90
BET OF THE DAY: Race 7 No 4 Jopa @ $10
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6 No 8 Sea Red @ $3.60
