The Manfred Stakes is the highlight on a Caulfield card that looks set to play out as a game of hit or miss for punters.
Well defined market leaders are the order of the day with Lord Of The Sky, Laidback Larry and Nayeli all holding genuine favourites chances in their respective races.
Laidback Larry, who takes on a field where 7 of the 14 are 10+ starts without a win, is the best overlay of that trio at current prices and gets the nod as the weeks banker.
In the feature itself, however, the value may lay with the markets second-elect, Bull Point.
Bull Point caught the eye in the Golden Rose with current Manfred favourite Prince Harada in behind him there.
Prince Harada is a talent going in the right direction and it could be argued that luck was never on his side last prep but if we take that Golden Rose run on face value then Bull Point is the most likely winner here.
The way the conditions of this race play out those the market sees as dangers to that pair look over-factored and exactas/quinellas can be played.
In the race prior the market is set to send out the lightly raced La Venta as the equal elect but she makes little appeal at those current odds and is therefore opposed.
She’s more to find on her stablemate Are There Any than the market suggests and Text’n Hurley is seen as a big improver up to the mile.
An in-form Five All adds to the task in front of La Venta, her chances certainly considered slimmer than the 25% that the current market offers.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL:
Banker: Race 8 #12 Laidback Larry @ $2.35
Play Of The Day: Race 6 #4 & #5 Exacta (play them up any which way!!)
Lay Of The Day: Race 5 #9 La Venta @ $4.00
