Smart filly Octavia looks a great chance of breaking through and winning the Yarra Valley Farms Plate at Caulfield today.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Smart filly Octavia looks a great chance of breaking through and winning the Yarra Valley Farms Plate (1200m) at Caulfield today.
Octavia showed herself a smart filly throughout last campaign, running well every time she was sent to the races, culminating in a good stakes success at today’s course and distance.
A claim for talented and in-form apprentice Kayla Nisbet sees her just a kilo over the minimum and she rolls forward today where as a majority of her key rivals are set to settle of speed.
She ticks plenty of boxes and appeals as more of a 6/4 shot than the 3/1 currently on offer. Well worth a play.
Serene Star has proven a touch frustrating this campaign, with her get back and run on racing pattern low-percentage, but she is a good talent and holds a clear class edge on today’s rivals.
It’s well worth noting that the weights are scaled today to leave her as the only horse in the handicap, in theory meaning that all are at a disadvantage against her, and from a good draw she is poised to take that advantage.
Think she can settle closer and her smart turn of foot can prove decisive.
$2.60 on offer has her making plenty of appeal as the banker for the day.
The one out lay in this column has continued to read more like a best bets sheet but we push on and lay another likely hope in the form of Committed.
No doubt Committed is a potentially smart horse who made a pleasing return at Flemington last time but he appears at this stage to be priced on potential rather than substance and the gap between him and many that are right there with him on form to this point appears too great.
Anything shorter than $4 looks too short and should be opposed.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL:
PLAY OF THE DAY: Race 2 #1 OCTAVIA @ $4.00
BANKER: Race 3 #1 SERENE STAR @ $2.60
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7 #13 COMMITTED @ $3.80
