A sixteen-runner mares handicap isn’t typically the best place to go shopping for a bet of the day but Serene Star has the form to be winning race seven at Caulfield and she can certainly be relied upon to run her race.
Photo by Racing and Sports
In sixteen career starts Serene Star has run poorly just the once, on a bottomless track at Warrnambool twelve months ago, and her two runs this time in have shown her racing as well as ever.
Her smart turn of foot has been on show in both runs this campaign, beating today’s chief rival Vibrant Rouge over 1100m here first up, and doing a terrific job to close talented filly Elite Elle to a head off a steady gallop last time.
Vibrant Rouge was in behind her again on that occasion and her chances of turning the tables appear a shade over-valued in early markets.
Anything better than 2/1 (33%) looks a worthy gamble.
A similar price is being bet about Darren Weir’s honest stayer Shiny Buttons earlier on the card but at those odds he looks one to oppose.
He is racing well and was right up to his form in Adelaide last time but it is worth noting that he is now 13 runs between wins and despite struggling to win off an official mark of 82 in Victoria has been raised to 85 on the back of his latest outing.
The more lightly raced pair of Verdant and Devised have the form, and the upside, to relegate Shiny Buttons to the minors once again.
One runner that should be able to defy the handicapper is the exciting Strawberry Boy.
He raced a bit keen at Flemington at his first time out for Peter Moody but proved too classy in the run home and the form has since been given a boost with Streets Away and Hawks Bay both running up to form since.
It’s a good competitive handicap but none in the field have the scope of Strawberry Boy who we have assessed as an odds-on chance.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL:
BANKER: STRAWBERRY BOY @ $2.25
PLAY OF THE DAY: SERENE STAR @ $3.00
LAY OF THE DAY: SHINY BUTTONS @ $3.00
