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Neil Evans' Tips for Muswellbrook (Sunday)

Track likely Soft 6 and rail out 5m from 1000m to 300m into a cutaway and True the remainder.

Racecourse : Muswellbrook.
Racecourse : Muswellbrook. Picture: @thebrookracing

Race 1 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

We open with the maiden sprinters on a track that will likely remain well into soft range. Plenty of chances in this dash headed by resuming Frosted three-year-old 3. Klinsmann who has been fitted with two trials by the leading provincial stable. Disappointed when hard in the market two runs last December, but given time can return a stronger sprinter here, and better suited starting over the five furlong trip where he can finish like his namesake regularly did for Germany at World Cups.

Dangers: Big watch on 8. Wategos who chased home a smart one in heavy ground on debut, and this is a level lower; while the betting will be a big indicator too with metro filly 9. Arale who hasn't started for nearly 10 months, but given a quiet trial by leading stable. Watch the market too on Turffontein three-year-old 1. Adamas Spirit who debuts at huge odds off a handy country trial.

How to play it: Klinsmann to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Same trip for the restricted older sprinters, and keen on progressive provincial four-year-old 1. Freddie Eddie third-up off a lengthy break. Went to the front at Taree and was only collared in the last stride by a handy sprinter, and drawn to roll forward on or near the speed again. Importantly big weight off-set by a 3kg allowance.

Dangers: Home track mare 2. Discompose led for a long way first-up three weeks back, and last time here at home went from barrier to box against similar opposition. Improving three-year-old 3. Hard To Excel can figure second-up from an inside draw; while 5. Zapluck fifth-up and 6. Sipharderson up significantly in grade with a big weight drop; both go in exotic plays.

How to play it: Freddie Eddie to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):

The first-up run of lightly raced provincial filly 3. Kimwantstogetahead making up plenty of late ground was good, and she looks even better suited here back on slightly firmer footing over 100m further with superior jockey taking over.

Dangers: Progresive filly 13. Street Candi looms as a big threat deep into the prep, having been placed in two of her last three, and right at home on soft and heavy tracks. Must keep safe 4. I Am Convincing who has raced okay on rain-affected ground all year for an underrated stable. Peaking fourth-up 1. Perfect Point; and 9. Elegant Poetess down in weight; are best of the rest.

How to play it: Kimwantstogetahead
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1280m):

This trip and speed map shapes beautifully for tough three-year-old 5. Thunder Knob who finds a slightly weaker race third-up. Stuck on well in a deeper contest at Scone in heavy ground, and drawn to get an ideal trail right behind the speed.

Dangers: Drawn alongside, provincial three-year-old 1. Just One Look is a serious threat fourth-up getting over more ground; while 7. Afewchoicewords can run into the minor end of the prize.

How to play it: Thunder Knob to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (2300m):

Now the stayers' turn, and getting right back down in the weights from a softer draw, honest country seven-year-old 2. Careering Away can notch only his second win in more than a year at good odds. Steps up in class, but better suited in soft ground after only being run down late on a Heavy 9 at Mudgee two weeks back. Can sit right behind the leader from this draw.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by metro mare 4. Aperol Spirit who is also looking to snap a lengthy winning drought, and has beaten all but the winner in his last two. Country 5YO 5. Lord Tropicana is another who can pick and choose his day to perform, but ran on well in the tougher Mornington showdown at Tamworth, and will find this easier; while 7. Turnaround Time and 8. Kikikapow go through the exotics.

How to play it: Careering Away each way
Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1280m):

Like the placement here of smart and unbeaten Scone filly 3. Angelical who can pick up where she left off last prep winning all three starts by sitting just off the speed and finishing best. Has trialled in the right fashion, and stable has been careful to find a suitable return race. Headed for bigger targets.

Dangers: Stablemate 2. Ceasfire worked home okay first-up against deeper opposition, and drew inside, but up significantly in weight; while another one from just up the road at Scone 5. Royale Return drops back sharply in grade from a metro BM 78 third-up.

How to play it: Angelical to win and quinella 2 and 3
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

We wrap the meeting over the sprint trip, and this stacks up nicely for progressive three-year-old and another member of the strong Paul Messara team 2. Lightfast who can make it two wins from three starts this prep. Stalked the speed and bolted in fresh at Tamworth before being ridden quieter at this track and hitting the line to only miss by a whisker a fortnight ago. The one to beat.

Dangers: Improving four-year-old 1. Lambdoma Energy is the clear threat third-up coming back a grade; while 3. Oakfield Mahogany5. Maha's Choice and 8. In Spades; are all capable of running into the placings and boosting exotic returns.

How to play it: Lightfast to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R3 3. KIMWANTSTOGETAHEAD
R6 3. ANGELICAL

BEST VALUE:
R5 2. CAREERING AWAY


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