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2016 Golden Rose - Ratings Support O'Shea's Confidence

Godolphin trainer John O’Shea is convinced his Golden Rose contenders Astern and Impending have come through the right form race in the lead-up to Saturday’s $1 million feature at Rosehill.

The Golden Rose (1400m), Sydney’s first G1 race of the season, has drawn an eclectic mix of quality three-year-olds representing an intriguing convergence of Sydney and interstate form lines.

O’Shea is aiming for back-to-back wins in the Golden Rose and if one of his pair can land the prize it will be the fourth time a three-year-old owned by Sheikh Mohammed has won Sydney’s richest spring race for the age group.

Peter Snowden trained Sheik Mohammed’s first trio of winners Forensics (2008), Denman (2009) and Epaulette (2012) under the Darley banner before the giant colt Exosphere gave O’Shea his first win last year wearing the royal blue Godolphin silks.

Astern wins the Run To The Rose
Astern wins the Run To The Rose Picture: Racing and Sports

Exosphere provides O’Shea with a valuable Golden Rose yardstick as Astern and Impending have followed the identical path he took with that colt last year.

Exosphere won the G2 Run To The Rose (1200m) at Rosehill at his first start since an inexplicable flop in the Golden Slipper Stakes as a two-year-old. He won the Golden Rose 14 days later to become the third 3YO to complete the double in the last decade after Hallowed Crown (2014) and Denman (2009).

The Run To The Rose has clearly been the key guide in the last 10 years as five Golden Rose winners had their final lead-up in that race.

The other races Golden Rose winners contested as their final preliminary have been the Up and Coming Stakes (3), Vain Stakes (1) and Light Fingers Stakes (1), the latter being in the autumn of 2008 after the 2007 Golden Rose was re-scheduled from the spring due the EI lock down.

The 2008 Golden Rose was won by Forensics, notably the only filly to win the Golden Rose since it replaced the Peter Pan Stakes in 2003.

They are results that have given O’Shea, who also trained Racing To Win when he finished second to Paratroopers in the 2005 Golden Rose, ample confidence in the form of Astern (James McDonald) and Impending (Brenton Avdulla) after they finished first and third in the Run To The Rose on August 27 when both were resuming.

“The right form race is the Run to the Rose and our two were the best runs in that race,” said O’Shea.

“The right form race is the Run to the Rose and our two were the best runs in that race.” – John O’Shea

“We are excited about our chances heading into Saturday. We’re pretty happy with them.

“It will be a good achievement for the team if we can pull it off two years in a row.”

O’Shea says Astern is a real professional who has developed since his strong 2YO season when he won three of his four starts including the G2 Silver Shadow Stakes and dead heated with Golden Rose rival El Divino in the G3 Kindergarten Stakes.

However he warns that Astern has little on Impending, who was having only his third career start when third in the Run To The Rose and holds ample scope for natural improvement.

“If Astern can get the right run in the race he will be very hard to beat but Impending is a horse on an upward spiral, stepping up to 1400m will suit him and he will be finishing off well,” O’Shea said.

“We’re looking forward to him stepping out.”

Two significant Golden Rose historical angles are the poor record of fillies - one win and two placings from 35 starters in 13 years – and the value of winning form as eight of the 13 winners went into the race as last start winners.

The other last start winners joining Astern in the Golden Rose are Yankee Rose, Omei Sword and Divine Prophet.

While the fillies record is uninspiring the sex this year has two representatives of the highest quality in G1 Golden Slipper runner-up and G1 ATC Sires Produce Stakes winner Yankee Rose and the last start G2 Silver Shadow Stakes winner Omei Sword.

Yankee Rose’s class is underlined by a comparison of last season’s Timeform ratings.

She finished the season on a rating of 120, seven points clear of her Golden Rose rivals Astern (113), El Divino (113) and Divine Prophet (113).

However after Astern beat San Domenico winner Star Turn in the Run To The Rose his rating jumped to a new career peak of 122p, the third highest figure for winners of that race behind Pierro (123) and Smart Missile (123).

Impending was beaten three lengths into third but should lift off his 104p rating from that race.

Omei Sword also soared up the Timeform charts with her powerful Silver Shadow Stakes win taking her rating to 112p while Divine Prophet ran to a 113 figure – equal to his best 2YO rating – with his win in the Up And Coming Stakes on the same day.

In Omei Sword’s favour is her favourable comparison to the 2015 Silver Shadow winner Speak Fondly, who ran to 112 before finishing second behind Exosphere in the Golden Rose when she improved to 113.

Omei Sword carries a Timeform improvement allowance but it remains to be seen if she can rise to the 121 rating Forensics – who was already a Golden Slipper winner – had to produce to beat the colts in the 2008 Golden Rose.


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