How short will Incentivise start in the Melbourne Cup, or will he drift?
Rival trainers and connections of horses engaged in the Melbourne Cup are looking for chinks in the armour of Incentivise.
On paper there appears to be none ahead of Tuesday's race at Flemington with his racing style being up on the speed and then grinding his rivals into submission, especially late in the race.
But $2.50 in current betting with TAB is short when opposed to 23 opponents on a warm Tuesday afternoon at Flemington.
There have been 34 favourites of the 160 editions of the Melbourne Cup to win the race, with the shortest being Phar Lap in 1931 as 8-11 on, or $1.73 in the current vernacular.
Back in 1901 Revenue scored at 7-4 or $2.75, but there have been many to go under at a comparable price.
Back in 1912, Dark Foote was unplaced as the $2.50 favourite while at $2.75 and finishing out of the money were Lanius (1917), Beau Vite (1940), Howe (1948) and Gay Icarus (1971).
Manfred (1925) and Redcraze (1956) both finished second at $2.75 while Rising Fast won as the $3.50 favourite in 1955 before running second the following year as the $3 top pick.
The last favourite to win was Fiorente in 2013 at $8 while So You Think (2010), third to Americain, was the shortest-priced favourite at $3 since odds changed to "dollars and cents" in 2007.
Apart from Makybe Diva in the third of her Melbourne Cup wins when she carried 58kg, Incentivise will become the first horse since Gold And Black in 1977 to carry 57kg or more if successful.
And he is shooting to become the first since Ethereal in 2001 to win the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups in the same year and the 12th overall to do so.
Since 1924 when starting position were first introduced to the Cup, three horses have been successful from barrier 16, the last being Jezabeel in 1998 who was heavily backed to run the $7 favourite.
What does it all mean, the current price on Incentivise is likely to drift, and that he may still prove too good for the opposition.
Trainer Peter Moody has kept Incentivise ticking over, noting he is a fit horse after his Caulfield Cup win.
Incentivise rounded out his Cup campaign with some pace work on the all-weather track at Pakenham on Sunday.
"I haven't done much with him as he was rock hard fit for the other day, but he's been ticking over nicely," Moody said.
"We've now got to see whether he can run the two miles and whether he's good enough."
