Historical Analysis of the Caulfield Guineas
Caulfield Guineas day throws up some weird results. We’ve had Abaridy win at 250-1, the wonder of Weekend Hussler, Skalato’s positive swab, the match race of Redoute’s Choice and Testa Rossa and the infamous 1987 Marwong protest.
To top that off it’s hard to forget the extraordinary drama of the whole 2005 race which certainly was God’s Own. All Too Hard versus Pierro wasn’t bad either. There can be plenty of value in the Guineas - let’s see if we can find it.
PROFILING THE RACE
o The critical statistic for the Caulfield Guineas is the barrier draw. If we take Skalato (’00) as the winner for the sake of the race day exercise, the average barrier of the winner over the last 16 years has been about 4. Press Statement was the exception.
o NSW & Qld horses have won 13 of last 19 runnings.
o There haven’t been many fillies compete in the race with the Thousand Guineas run four days later but the last one to run a place against the boys is Shankhill Lass in 1985. Surround was the last filly to win in 1976.
o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <1-4> - 5 times
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $5.80
o Breakdown of winners - 3 geldings & 7 colts
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Caul Guin Prel (5), Stutt Stks (1), Stan Fox Stks (2), George Main Stks (1), 3yo Open (1)
RECENT WINNERS
2015 - PRESS STATEMENT 3c (Hinchinbrook x Kaaptive Empress) ($2.50 fav)
Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Chris WallerBarrier: 14, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 1:36.47
Margin: 1.8L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 162nd: Lizard Island (56.5kg), 3rd: Ready For Victory (56.5kg)
Review: This was the classic case of ride him like a good thing and all will be good. Bowman was on a roll and so was Waller. Press Statement was happy enough to come along for the ride.
He didn’t have the luck in the Golden Rose but would not have beaten Exosphere anyway. With that big fella going sprinting, this colt had the Melbourne rivals for toast. Bowman fired him out to lead from wide and he controlled the race.
He went at the point of the bend easing out and gave nothing a hope. It was one of the easier G1 wins considering that the race often throws up upsets and leaders aren’t advantaged from bad alleys.
Did the VRC Derby winner run – YES (Tarzino 7th)
Barrier: 8, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 1:35.58
Margin: 0.3L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 132nd: Rich Enuff (56.5kg), 3rd: Wandjina (56.5kg)
Review: There had been a lot of talk about this bloke’s older full brother Deep Field and whether he could win a G1. Well the 3yo of the family did the job in one of the biggest of all the semi-classics.
Shooting To Win had been around all the right Sydney form lines including an unlucky third in the Golden Rose and an effortless Stan Fox victory. But he met a strong match at Caulfield. Rich Enuff had been in sparkling form and was heavily backed into odds on. STW jumped well and tagged the speed most of the way.
Just as Rich Enuff got going, McDonald got stuck into STW and was close enough at the important stage. It was only late but the Sydney colt stuck his head out to give the Snowdens three of the last four Guineas.
Did the VRC Derby winner run - NO2013 - LONG JOHN 3g (Street Cry x Hosiery) ($3.75 fav)
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy, Trainer: Peter SnowdenBarrier: 1, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 1:36.73
Margin: 0.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 142nd: Divine Calling (56.5kg), 3rd: Shamus Award (56.5kg)
Review: It looked a weak Guineas leading into it with no G1 winners for only second time in many years (2007’s EI affected race the other one). With the evenness, barriers were going to be critical as they have been over the last twenty years and nothing changed in 2013.
In what was a peach of a McEvoy ride, not only did he use the inside to hold a position, he popped off the fence at the best time and gathered momentum into the bend. As others were being held up, the gelding hit the go button.
He did look under threat as Divine Calling ranged up but he was tenacious. The strength of the form was debated but the Cox Plate winner actually ran in it.
Did the VRC Derby winner run – NO
