Historical Analysis of the Magic Millions
We’ve seen some dynamic wins the Magic Millions 2yo Classic recently and some dramatic moments too.
The main race itself got great credibility once again when the winner went onto the Golden Slipper a few years ago. Let’s identify some previous winners and their further triumphs.
PROFILING THE RACE
o Barriers are CRUCIAL from the 1200m start at the Gold Coast as the race more or less starts on a bend and giving away advantage on a track which sweeps into the straight it suicidal.
o Since the race has gone to a combined event from 1993 onwards, fillies have won 11 of the 23 runnings. Bold Promise was good enough to win both female and male divisions in ‘91. But besides Phelan Ready and then Unencumbered/Le Chef, the last few years have been unbelievable in terms of female supremacy. 5 of last 8 runnings have seen them trifecta the race.
o 19 of the last 23 winners have been last start victors.
o Unencumbered and Augusta Proud had more than three runs leading into the MM but no others (And AP was in the EI year so the race was held later). In fact every other winner since 1993 has had 2 or 3 runs for experience.
o Excellerator in 2001 was an outright fav to win then a gap before Military Rose and Karuta Queen went back to back. Unencumbered then did the job as punter’s elect in 2014.
o Before Phelan Ready, only horse to go onto win the Golden Slipper after winning the Magic Millions was Dance Hero.
o From 1997 to 2004 only one winner (Catnipped) failed to win a subsequent G1.
o Gai Waterhouse won this race 3 times in 5 years (Dance Hero/Excellerator/Assertive Lad) and again in 2012.
o Breakdown of last 10 winners - 1 colt, 7 fillies, 2 geldings.
o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <1-4> - 6 times
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $12 ($7 without Phelan Ready)
o Races that the winner ran in prior - McLachlan Stks (3), Tommy Smith (1), Wyong MM (1), Adelaide MM (1), Open 2yos (4)
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 3, Weight: 57.0kg, Gross Time: 1:10.77
Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 162nd: Pepperano (55.0kg), 3rd: Single Gaze (55.0kg)
Review: This always shaped as an outsiders year with a disappointing field. It was 7-2 the favourite and on a track which had been rain affected all week, an upset was waiting to happen.
There was speed on early but then it slowed as Carriages slowed in front. It allowed those around the pace to get charmed runs. Luke Tarrant had Le Chef behind the leader and in the straight the split came.
He surged through coming four off the rails and despite being headed 200m out, fought back to draw away from Pepperano who was three wide the journey.
Barrier: 3, Weight: 57.0kg, Gross Time: 1:09.60
Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 162nd: Oakleigh Girl (55.0kg), 3rd: Ruby Soho (55.0kg)
Review: There were several things against Unencumbered leading into the 2014 edition. Colts have a poor record and horses having more than 3 runs are usually over the top.
But with one of the Berry boys up, a trainer on a roll and most importantly an inside barrier, he was too good and punters knew that with heavy backing. On a day when they ran fast times, on pace was well suited. He was three back the fence early but worked one off by half way.
As the horse three wide outside the lead hung, Nathan Berry, fresh off an announced move to Singapore, took a lovely run through and surged clear of the gallant filly Oakleigh Girl.
We now realise the importance of the win into the future very sadly after the shock of Nathan Berry’s death.
Did the winner run in the Golden Slipper: YES (10th)
Barrier: 2, Weight: 55.0kg, Gross Time: 1:09.98
Margin: 0.2L, Track: Good, Starters: 162nd: Sweet Idea (55.0kg), 3rd: Missy Longstocking (55.0kg)
Review: Yet again the girls dominated this race which was appropriate in the first year of an incentive to get more women involved in racehorse ownership.
The pace was on but the race itself went without short favourite Assail who was scratched on race morning with a foot abscess.
Real Surreal was still back 12th near the bend with many of the other favs further away from their gates. She weaved a passage as Sweet Idea looked home and won with a head to spare.
Did the winner run in the Golden Slipper: NO
