Historical Analysis of the Villiers Stakes
The format for the big Randwick miles are well known but last time it was not run there. Like all the major races run over the famous course, you see big fields, high drama and fabulous finishes. The Villiers might be run in the Summer but it has produced several G1 winners and been contested by a few as well. Take a look at the recent December mile winners.
PROFILING THE RACE
o Besides Utzon’s 57.5kg weight in ’06, Monton’s 2011 win with 58kg was the most carried to win since Soho Square lumped 56.5kg in ’92. In other words it’s a light weights race.
o Inside barriers have been clearly advantaged recently which isn’t always a necessity over the mile nor a Warwick Farm trend. The quinella on the Kenso in 2013 drew out.
o Mares have won 6 times in the last 21 years.
o Last few years have seen plenty of double figure priced winners.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (4 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.5kg
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $11.50
o Breakdown of winners - 6 geldings, 3 mares & 1 entire
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Festival Stks (4), Eclipse Stks (1), Recognition Stks (1), Other Handicaps (4)
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 6, Weight: 53.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.27
Margin: 0.2L, Track: Slow (5), Starters: 152nd: I’m Imposing (56.5kg), 3rd: Strawberry Boy (57.0kg)
Review: Queenslanders have had a good record in this race going back a few years. When two of them started the favourites in 2014, you thought it would be a similar tale. Rudy had run in the strong Winter classic races and run well in them until the Derby.
The 2400m might have been too far. But he showed the mile was perfect winning this feature. He sat around midfield or just worse for a lot of the race as Strawberry Boy carved along. Sir Moments was closer than expected.
Luke Tarrant weaved a passage and held off the fast finishing I’m Imposing. Drama followed when firstly fourth got third on protest and Tarrant weighed in 0.4kg light. It was a close thing all round.
Barrier: 11, Weight: 54.5kg, Gross Time: 1:31.41
Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 142nd: Limes (53.0kg), 3rd: Alma’s Fury (58.0kg)
Review: There was seemingly more controversy in the lead up to the 2013 Villiers than the race itself.
With only a week before the event, the meeting was transferred from the course proper to the Kensington track due to renovation work on the main track which hadn’t been finalised. Some were not happy but this new surface has been racing so well.
This event was controlled from the front. Bar for Listen Son, the other four horses in the first five settling ran that placings. Ninth Legion was a good winner at Rosehill then unable to get any clear running in the Festival Stks.
If there was one horse you wanted to be on going forward from that, it was him. Robl camped him second and he simply out plugged them home. It wasn’t a strong renewal.
Barrier: 9, Weight: 54.0kg, Gross Time: 1:35.81
Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 182nd: Alma’s Fury (53.0kg), 3rd: Darci Be Good (55.4kg)
Review: With the race run at Warwick Farm with the Randwick redevelopment going on, a field of 18 was always going to mean a highly competitive race and one fraught with unlucky runners.
The mare Holy Moly rolled along but had plenty of company. Schofield had All Legal back midfield needing luck and he had to wait until the 200m for a gap to appear as Monton and Darci Be Good were fighting it out.
But it opened as he and Alma’s Fury swept up and he got the nose down. Thumbtacks was quite stiff.
