Historical Analysis of the Queensland Oaks
The Queensland version of the Oaks has been a guide to producing a few future quality horses. Ethereal and Arctic Scent won Caulfield Cups later that year (of course Ethereal won an even bigger race). It’s also a race for the blueblood fillies as there have been some legendary bloodlines taking out the G1 staying feature. Any more Caulfield Cup winners we can find?
PROFILING THE RACE
o In some runnings, there’s been a distinct lack of black type winning form for recent Oaks winners. Makes you think it’s more of a consolation prize. A lot of the form lead ins are either placings or class grade staying events. Should it be made into a Mares Staying Championship to end the season?
o Barriers haven’t been that important but that can depend on track conditions.o Interstate and NZ trainers have had a field day. Mon Mekki only local horse to win for yonks.
o The Zabeel and Danehill influence is strong. Last 19 - Zabeel has 4 wins, Danehill two.o Some of the great bloodlines have been re-established with the Denise’s Joy lineage from Joie Denise, Naturalism’s sister Crystal Palace winning and Romanee Conti was a top quality mare before producing Ethereal.
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $11o Races that the winner ran in prior - Doomben Roses (8), Riccarton Stks (1), Class 2 or 3 (1)
RECENT WINNERS
2013 - GONDOKORO 3f (Zabeel x Kisumu) ($4.50)
Jockey: Rhys McLeod, Trainer: Pat CareyBarrier: 1, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 2:32.17
Margin: 3L, Track: Slow, Starters: 172nd: Miss Zenella (56.5kg), 3rd: Vaquera (56.5kg)
Review: Her full brother was already a G1 winner of a Derby and this filly had already been around in two Oaks races herself. She was OK in the first and then, while beaten a margin to Royal Descent, was decent again. Perhaps her biggest hurdle was drawing gate one because she had shown some signs of barrier issues but she away solidly enough. Actually she landed the spot behind Dear Demi and followed her for half the race. But once N Rawiller got off the fence at the 800m McLeod popped inside and saved four lengths. Then when DD was searching for runs turning, Gondo was out in the clear (with a shove or two) and it was over. She simply outstayed them.
Barrier: 1, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 2:38.40
Margin: 2.5L, Track: Heavy, Starters: 172nd: Eliza Blues (56.5kg), 3rd: Vittoria (56.5kg)
Review: It was an incredibly heavy track. Not quite to the call off stage but certainly a Heavy 10 as the time indicated. Usually drawing inside is not the best on wet going but it saved plenty of ground as others went wide. Browne was able to sit more forward than the Roses, take a gap turning and in the end it was a romp. Form out of the race has not been great.
2011 - SCARLETT LADY 3f (Savabeel x On Call) ($4 fav)
Jockey: James McDonald, Trainer: Graeme & Debbie RogersonBarrier: 9, Weight: 55.5kg, Gross Time: 2:29.60
Margin: 2.5L, Track: Dead, Starters: 172nd: Becerra (55.5kg), 3rd: Shez Sinsational (55.5kg)
Review: The Zabeel influence has been strong in this race over the years. Now we saw the next generation as a son of sired the winner. She got all the way back to fourth last. It wasn’t overly fast up front but once McDonald got her mobile she charged out wide and rounded them up easily to draw away from Becerra on the inside and the other kiwi Shez Sinsational working home.
