With heavy showers anticipated on Tuesday evening, the weather could be a major factor on the Wednesday of Glorious Goodwood and the feature race, the Group 1 Sussex Stakes.
It appears to be a two-horse race at best in the 1m Group 1 Sussex Stakes (3:35) as Paddington bids for a fourth straight Group 1. It is important to remember that the three-year-old has winning form on heavy ground in Ireland and the offspring of sire Siyouni are becoming well-known for their ability to act in soft conditions – a distinct advantage if the forecast rain hits Goodwood on Tuesday evening. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won the race five times and all of those victories were claimed by three-year-olds including The Gurkha in 2016.
Although the winning margin (half-a-length) of Paddington's Group 1 Eclipse Stakes victory over Emily Upjohn is small, the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt was always doing enough at the front and could have easily put more distance between him and his rival if asked. A return to a mile appears to be a positive with arguably his best performance a three-and-three-quarter demolition of the Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. If forced to find a negative, there would be a minor question mark about the colt's awkward head carriage in the closing stages of the Eclipse – it could be the small margin between winning and losing if anybody could get close enough to him.
Inspiral offers a worthy opponent for Paddington, despite having to concede 4lb to the three-year-old. The John and Thady Gosden-trained filly was only raced four times during her three-year-old campaign, winning the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville. Although her record officially states the filly has been successful on good-to-soft ground in the past, it could be argued that autumn ground conditions was the cause of her defeat in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in October. Any significant rain would probably be a negative.
WIN: PADDINGTON
There are some exciting colts entered for the 5f Molecombe Stakes (3:00) with Karl Burke's Kylian currently heading the betting. It took a while for the son of Invincible Spirit to get a handle on the racing game, but he looked a different horse when producing an impressive six length victory in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown Park. He didn't have a clear passage through the race, with jockey Ryan Moore required to switch to the outside to make a challenge before cruising away to victory. His experience against some good-quality opposition will be an advantage.
Second on debut at Redcar, Big Evs was a surprise winner of the five furlongs Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot for trainer Michael Appleby. He was always at the fore of the action and pulled clear in the closing stages to win easily by three-lengths. It was an impressive performance from the son of Blue Point and it will be interesting to see if he continues to improve on his third career start.
WIN: KYLIAN
It is a very open renewal of the 7f Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (2:25) with multiple fillies and mares capable of winning. Karl Burke's Fast Response was a close second in the Listed City Plate Stakes at Chester over the same trip and heads the betting with a relatively unexposed profile tackling seven furlongs.
The race could be Jumbly's opportunity to break through for a well-deserved success, although the current form of the Joseph O'Brien yard (4-43 in last fourteen days) is somewhat of a concern. She is a twice-winner over seven furlongs, although it is the first time the filly has run over the trip since a second in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes in April 2022.
It could easily be argued that Olivia Maralda boasts the best of the form in the field and she makes appeal at 17/2. The three-year-old won the Listed Surrey Stakes at Epsom Downs before a fifth in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes, where she was only beaten less than two lengths by Age Of Kings. The return to same sex competition may prove key.
WIN: OLIVIA MARALDA
RACING & SPORTS SELECTIONS
RACE 1 – AMLETO
RACE 2 – OLIVIA MARALDA
RACE 3 – KYLIAN
RACE 4 – PADDINGTON
RACE 5 – JUNIPER BERRIES
RACE 6 – LA ISLA MUJERES
RACE 7 - DARKNESS
