The form of the 2000 Guineas will stand trial in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes on the opening day of Royal Ascot, with Chaldean returning to the track for the first time since his Classic victory.
On paper, the value of the 2000 Guineas form appears to be strong with Auguste Rodin (twelfth) winning the Epsom Derby, Little Big Bear (fourteenth) favourite for the Commonwealth Cup after his Sandy Lane Stakes romp and Hi Royal (second) claiming another place in the Irish equivalent. Yet, with the exception of Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear, none of the colts from the 2000 Guineas have subsequently won – and the Ballydoyle duo's victories came over entirely different distances.
Whilst it is easy to throw stones at the form of Chaldean's Classic, the Andrew Balding colt holds an impressive record. Despite a defeat on debut at Newbury, Chaldean won his four subsequent starts as a juvenile over 7f including the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. He unseated in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes on seasonal reappearance and made amends for the mishap with a smooth victory in the Newmarket Classic, taking the lead in the final furlong and drawing clear to win by one-and-three-quarter lengths on soft ground. He has never encountered ground quicker than good but with rain forecast for Tuesday morning, the Frankel colt is set to run under favoured conditions.
The Aidan O'Brien-trained Paddington came into the Irish 2000 Guineas with a progressive profile, having started the campaign with a win in a Naas handicap before a success in the Listed Tetrarch Stakes at the Curragh over a mile. In the Irish Classic, he had to be kept to his work in the early stages after a slow start but hit top gear at one furlong out and stayed on well to record a two-length success ahead of stable-mate Cairo. Notably, 2000 Guineas second Hi Royal could only manage third with Charyn (fourth), Galeron (fifth) and Royal Scotsman (ninth) all producing similar or worse efforts than their respective Newmarket runs.
The Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) is also represented by the second-placed horse Isaac Shelby. Trained in the UK by Brian Meehan, Isaac Shelby was the beneficiary of Chaldean's mishap in the Greenham Stakes and won easily by three-lengths despite his starting price of 15/2. Sold to new connections before the French Classic, the colt produced a big effort to finish a short head behind surprise winner Marhaba Ya Sanafi, who continued his run of good form. The winner has since finished a good third behind Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby).
Cicero's Gift is well-regarded at home by trainer Charlie Hills and will be making the step up in Group 1 company after three victories. The colt remains unbeaten and routed a small field at Goodwood in a one mile conditions stakes at the start of May, beating Kolsai by five-and-a-half lengths. Kolsai gave the form a boost when finishing third in the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom Downs on Derby Day.
Of the longer prices, Royal Scotsman (currently available at 14/1) has perhaps been unfairly discounted after coming back sore from a disappointing performance in the Irish 2000 Guineas. He finished second in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes behind Chaldean and was well-fancied ahead of the 2000 Guineas before his good third.
WIN: PADDINGTON (5/2)
VALUE: ISAAC SHELBY (11/1)
DARK HORSE: ROYAL SCOTSMAN (14/1)
