A competitive Turnbull Stakes line up awaits the first Melbourne appearance of Newcastle-trained mare Lucia Valentina at Flemington this afternoon.

The former Kiwi mare now prepared by Kris Lees has returned to racing as a four-year-old much stronger already reaching a new career peak Timeform rating of 118p with a dynamic first up win in the Tramway Handicap over 1400m at Randwick.

A convincing winner of the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) plus an unlucky second in the G1 ATC Oaks at three, Lucia Valentina has stamped her authority on favouritism for the G1 Caulfield Cup after her two runs at four this campaign.

Although unplaced last start there was a lot to like about her sixth in the weight for age G1 George Main Stakes over 1600m at Randwick behind Sacred Falls.

This afternoon under the set weights of the G1 Turnbull Stakes Lucia Valentina comes into the race attractively weighted on 53.5kgs and is clearly the horse to beat on Timeform weight adjusted ratings.

The main dangers could come from other well treated horses under the weight scale in Stipulate and Puissance de Lune.

A former UK–trained galloper Stipulate now with Team Hayes is currently in his third campaign since coming down under. It is quite clear Stipulate is starting to acclimatise reaching a new career peak after a luckless effort last start in the G1 Underwood Stakes.

At his start prior, his first this preparation, he defeated subsequent winner Brambles over 1700m at Caulfield.

Stipulate looks ideally suited stepping up to 2000m on a bigger track today.

Puissance De Lune narrowly beaten in the Turnbull Stakes last year by Happy Trails will be out to atone today.

Similar to last year, Puissance De Lune will be fourth up from a spell and comes into the race with a similar Timeform rating of 122. Last start he flashed home late in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m at Flemington and the step up to 2000m should suit perfectly.

Despite not having won for over twelve months, Puissance De Lune looks well placed under the weight scale and will appreciate the step up in distance on the roomy Flemington track.

Fourth up form a spell today will not be an issue as he has never missed a place in that state from three previous runs – winning once.

If there is to be an upset it could come from Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon.

He was sound when resuming in the Makybe Diva Stakes and will appreciate the 2000m today.

It is worth remembering that second up last campaign he was just beaten by Fiorente in the G1 Australian Cup over this course and distance.

Whatever happens, today’s Turnbull Stakes result has the potential to reshape prepost betting markets for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

Enjoy the race.