This afternoon’s 2014 group one Underwood Stakes provides would-be spring hopefuls another opportunity to showcase their credentials ahead of the big Spring majors.
Crack New Zealand mare Silent Achiever is easily the highest weight adjusted Timeform rated runner in the field but she does face considerable hurdles in terms of history.
In the last 20 years, 53 mares have contested the Underwood Stakes and not one has been successful, but 11 have been placed. And they included such handy mares as Atlantic Jewel (Timeform rated 125), Dear Demi (118), Southern Speed (110), Dariana (116), Miss Finland (124), Justa Tad (113), She’s Archie (112), Ain’t Seen Nothin’(110), Magical Miss (121), Inaflury (122) and Jezabeel (106).
Delving further into history reveals that when the higher rated mares have been beaten, they have generally run up against a very good male galloper such as Dundeel last year defeating Atlantic Jewel or Northerly defeating Magical Miss, Elvstroem over She’s Archie and So You Think over Dariana.Silent Achiever with a Timeform rating of 123 will be the third highest rated mare to contest the Underwood in the last 20 years and looking at the field this afternoon I cannot see any male runner that remotely matches those mentioned above on Timeform ratings.
So while the record of mares is dismal, today an ideal opportunity presents itself for Silent Achiever to break that “hoodoo” and I think she can.A historical fact that does support Silent Achiever today is that she is attempting to be the fifth straight winner to be second up from a spell, a state she performs very well in having previously won three of her five runs.
A New Zealand Derby winner at three, Silent Achiever has already proved herself against the best weight for age gallopers racing on both sides of the Tasman winning three times last Autumn at that level culminating with the defeat of Dundeel in the BMW (2400m) at Rosehill.Silent Achiever showed she was on track for another good campaign with an excellent fresh up fourth placing in the Memsie Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield behind Dissident but of slight concern is the fact that last spring she failed to capture her Autumn level ratings.
The main dangers are Foreteller, Star Rolling and Melbourne Cup bound The Offer.
The Chris Waller-trained Foreteller seems to have a liking for Caulfield and his second up effort in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes over 1600m at Moonee Valley was eye-catching as was the run by The Offer in the same race.Settling ten lengths off the pace at the 800m, Foreteller made a late charge for the line going under by just over a length behind The Cleaner.
A winner third up from a spell, Foreteller should be fitter today and improve his Timeform rating closer to his master 123 figure at which level he would fight out the finish.The Underwood Stakes is normally a good guide to the Melbourne Cup and not just for winners of the race – although The Offer will be out to join Rain Lover (1969) and Jeune (1994) as the only horses to take the double since the Underwood Stakes was first run in 1924.
The Offer while very good at Moonee Valley is unproven at weight for age but he will be fitter and better suited by getting out to 1800m but the fact remains he has never won a race shorter than 2200m in distance and that may just come against him here.Star Rolling winner of the P J Lawrence over 1400m at Caulfield when resuming failed to build on that form in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, being off the bit chasing most of the race, placing him very much out of his comfort zone.
A more leisurely run affair today will be more to his liking and I am expecting him to run closer to his master Timeform rating of 118.Enjoy the race
