It is hard to imagine champion trainer Gai Waterhouse has never won the G1 Australian Derby on her home turf at Randwick, but that could all change this afternoon.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Waterhouse has saddled up three Derby placegetters in her short training career to date, Descarado (2nd in 2010), Tuesday Joy (3rd in 2007) and Carnegie Express (2nd in 2002) but she has probably never had a better opportunity to ring up number one.
Fresh from her fourth Golden Slipper win last week with Pierro, Waterhouse will have two three-year-olds in the Blue Riband event over 2400m, Rosehill Guineas winner Laser Hawk and useful type Satirical Boy.
However ratings riser Laser Hawk is clearly the better chance of the two. Lightly raced, he has won four of his five race starts, his most recent a hard fought win in the G1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m at Rosehill defeating kiwi gallopers Ocean Park and Silent Achiever.
That pair oppose him again this afternoon however Laser Hawk appeals as the likely victor again.
Laser Hawk has made rapid improvement in three runs this campaign taking his Timeform rating to a new level of 123p in the Rosehill Guineas. That followed a 101 rating on resumption at Rosehill in Benchmark 80 company and a 117 when narrowly defeated by crack filly Mosheen in the G1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m.
I expect Laser Hawk to improve again this afternoon thereby placing additional pressure on those he beat home at Rosehill to find more in order to turn the tables today.
Not only does Laser Hawk have that capacity for improvement but he has a very adaptable running style that could see him lead if necessary given the race, on paper at least, looks devoid of any recognised pace.
Laser Hawk has led and won previously and although this strategy may not be the preferred one by Waterhouse today preferring instead to get cover as he did in the Rosehill Guineas, it is a valuable option for champion rider Nash Rawiller to have at his disposal, especially if the race unfolds into tactical manoeuvres.
There is no doubt the Rosehill Guineas is the key lead up race for this afternoon's Derby. Historically the Rosehill Guineas has provided 15 of the last 20 Australian Derby winners including four that have taken the double, Innocent King (1993), Octagonal (1996), Sky Heights (1999) and Eremein (2005).
The first three horses across the line in the event this year all have strong claims but luck in running could easily decide the outcome.
Luck in running certainly deserted both kiwis Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Rosehill Guineas and they will be looking for revenge this afternoon.
They both have excellent credentials however I favour the same finishing order again with Ocean Park having a slight edge over the filly. In just two previous match ups, the record is one a piece with a neck between them either way both times.
Ocean Park (Timeform rated 122) who prefers firmer footing has raced twice in Australia and both times caught the eye.
Coming off a 42 day break after going down narrowly to Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas over 1600m, Ocean Park suffered interference early in the straight in the Randwick Guineas that cost him valuable ground. He made up many lengths in the closing stages beaten just over two lengths behind Mosheen and Laser Hawk.
Then stepping up to 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas, Ocean Park was “stoked up” about 800m from home pulling four and five wide around the field to challenge turning for home.
Despite covering additional ground, he battled on strongly and was going home as well as Laser Hawk on the line to just fail by a head.
With a better run this afternoon he rates as the horse to test Laser Hawk and give race rider Glen Boss back to back Australian Derby victories and his fourth Derby overall success having won the 2011 renewal atop Shamrocker, 2004 renewal on Starcraft and the 1999 renewal on Sky Heights.
Ocean Park will appreciate a return to the roomier Randwick course and if saved for a final sprint will prove hard to hold out.
Crack kiwi filly Silent Achiever (Timeform rated 118) has carried all before her in New Zealand before coming to Australia. In this her first preparation she has won the G2 Waikato Guineas (1600m), G2 Avondale Guineas (2100m) and G1 New Zealand Derby all against the males.
Her first run in Australia was a cracking effort when close up in third place behind Laser Hawk and Ocean Park in the Rosehill Guineas. She too had little luck tracking Ocean Park and covering plenty of extra ground.
Silent Achiever will also appreciate the larger Randwick course and the fact she has already won over 2400m does give her a slight edge.
On the down side is that she will probably have to improve again to beat the boys this afternoon and given she has been in work since November last year there must be a doubt she can do so.
Then there is the historical significance of the fillies' record in the Australian Derby. Since 1979 only four fillies have been successful against the boys, the last being Shamrocker in 2011, and before her Research in 1989. What chance of a filly winning the Australian Derby back to back?
Away from the top three chances, Strike The Stars (120) is worthy of consideration again at good odds. This fellow has been a little disappointing since his eye catching second to Mosheen in the G1 Australian Guineas failing behind the same filly at Randwick then a closing fifth in the Rosehill Guineas after covering ground with no cover.
Today he has drawn the rails and should get a nice smother until produced in the straight. It would not surprise to see him take a hand in the finish.
All the same if Laser Hawk gets the right run he looks a great chance to give Gai her first Australian Derby winner and become the fifth three-year-old to take the Rosehill Guineas/Derby double in the last 20 years.
