In-form mare Invincible Lady looks the horse to beat in today's Begonia City Fencing Handicap (race 5) at Ballarat.
With rain still playing havoc with much of New South Wales and some of Victoria, Ballarat's Dowling Forest course has come up surprisingly firm which will suit Invincible Lady to a tee today as she tackles this RB72 over 1100m.
Prepared by Darren Weir, who has bases at both Warrnambool and here, Invincible Lady has been flying this time in and from an ideal gate looks hard to beat again.
After a win over 1200m last campaign she was placed in slow ground then disappointed in the same conditions so Weir decided not to press on through winter and gave her a good spell.
She resumed over 1000m at Terang in an RB62, settling midfield before running away with an effortless 4.5 length win.
She then stepped up to 1100m at Werribee and after settling midfield again ran away with a most impressive win, this time by 3.5 lengths in what has turned out a strong form race, including My Survivor's win at Pakenham on Tuesday.
Weir decided Invincible Lady should be given her chance in town and headed to Moonee Valley for a 1200m RB78, where she was able to sit just off the pace from a good gate.
Turning fourth she got around heels and rallied strongly, running into second behind Follonica, who has since run fourth in the Group 3 Mannerism Stakes then won at Sandown Hillside last time.
That form reads well for Invincible Lady, who was only half a length behind Follonica and comes back in grade for today's race.
She's got more weight, as you'd imagine, but is well placed this grade on her recent ratings and will appreciate the 100m journey fresh.
She has drawn well, has a great record on dead ground and looks the clear top pick today.
The Robbie Griffiths trained Chelembra was disappointing last start but is worth another chance in this easier grade.
The lightly raced gelding was racing in town last campaign, finishing it off up the straight at Flemington over this journey where he drew wide, sat just off the pace, and battled home to finish seventh behind Bel Sprinter, who has won two stakes races since.
After a good spell Chelembra resumed in an RB68 over 1000m at Pakenham and was too classy, sitting fourth before running away with a soft win.
He then stepped up to an RB78 over 1100m at Kilmore.
Settling back and one off the fence, he copped a bump around the turn which may have put him off his game as he was only one paced from there and didn't ping like his last start.
He ended up ninth in what was a disappointing run.
Today he drops in grade and may be worth another chance as he has drawn for a good run.
Churn And Burn failed last run before a spell but showed good promise prior to that and can run well fresh here.
The lightly raced gelding, prepared by Mick Price, won on debut over 1000m at Echuca when bolting in then was sound when runner up in a showcase race at Sale over 1000m, leading before being nabbed right on the line.
He then went to Moonee Valley in much tougher grade and after a poor start mustered speed to settling just behind the leaders.
The early effort told, though, and he may have also come to the end of his campaign as he hit the rail as he wobbled around the bend then showed little in the straight and dropped out.
He has had a break now and from the inside gate is expected to give a good sight fresh.
So Real was also disappointing at his last run but is worth another chance.
The Leon Corstens trained gelding placed in an RB68 fresh then was fourth at Moonee Valley when beaten less than two lengths.
He went to Seymour in an RB68 as favourite but ran well below his best, dropping out in the straight.
He is three weeks between runs as he drops back in journey and on his best form can give a big sight here.
British General will also give a big sight on his impressive all the way win here fresh.
