Keith Melrose reports on the big handicapping performances from the July meeting and beyond.
Late on Sunday evening, Germany realised the superiority most imagined them to have over the 31 other teams in the World Cup without having to produce their best on the night. Those who had watched the July Cup had probably felt a similar sensation already that weekend. Slade Power is sprinting’s Germany: relatively young, admirably consistent in executing the game plan laid out for him, and very much a champion.
Slade Power was ahead of Lahm & Co. on the last point and by significantly more than 24 hours. His Diamond Jubilee success had made him Europe’s top-rated sprinter and he didn’t even need to match that form to win Europe’s best sprint. His performance in beating Tropics by one and a half lengths amounts to 126, 4 lb shy of his peak figure. What we learned about Slade Power on Saturday was his reliability: he’s clearly an uncomplicated sprinter who both travels and responds, while the fact he doesn’t race too far back minimises any potential traffic problems. Combined with the form we know he’s capable of, it makes Slade Power an irresistible proposition in the big sprints to follow this year.
It was a young July Cup field overall, only runner-up Tropics was aged older than five, so we can still be said to be learning about many of the runners; the lessons are quite encouraging. Tropics himself, lightly-raced for his age, put up a career-best effort of 122 and is surely up to winning more Group races. Gregorian ran right up to his best dropped to sprint trips, though it should be said that he’ll remain a nearly horse in these races, as he was at a mile, if 122 is the height of his powers.
The three-year-olds deserve focus all of their own, four of the five to run coming out with something to recommend them. Remarkably it was Cougar Mountain (119p) who finished best of them on just his second start. It’s far beyond the remit of those that compile ratings to suggest just what a horse that can live with the best sprinters so soon might eventually achieve, but it’s fair to say that we at Timeform are excited by him. Noozhoh Canarias confirmed he had the speed to live with Group sprinters but just had an off day and isn’t to be given up on- after all his Guineas run looks better with seemingly every passing week. Hot Streak did what was expected of him in failing to stay a testing six furlongs but showed enough to endorse his 125 rating, which will see him competitive in any race back at five. And finally spare a thought for Astaire, who was again asked a lot of on a big day. His rating has been pulled down to 119, though a return to something in the 120s wouldn’t surprise us if he’s ridden with a bit more restraint.
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The July Cup hinted at much though, in ratings terms, changed little. The opposite effect was generally seen through the rest of the July meeting. Integral got Sky Lantern’s measure again in the Falmouth and we’ve taken the hint now: Integral upped her rating to 121, putting her 1 lb ahead of Sky Lantern on 120. Of course, we’re still talking fine margins, so should Sky Lantern recover her form the two could yet have a re-staging of last year’s battle in the Sun Chariot.
There’s also a new leader on the road among the two-year-olds. Ivawood essentially went on a one-horse breakaway in the July Stakes on Thursday, looking comfortable in front on just his second start and only extending for pressure as the field toiled behind, not unlike Tony Martin’s laudable solo effort to win Sunday’s stage of the Tour de France. There was no yellow jersey for Martin, though Ivawood does get Timeform’s equivalent: he’s now our top-rated juvenile on 116p. With even your average Champion Juvenile rated in the 120s, Ivawood will need to improve if he’s to take his lead into Paris, so to speak, though he surely will, seven furlongs and greater experience bound to draw more from him.
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As is customary by now, we finish our Ratings round-up on the continent. There was no Sea The Moon-type revelation in the Grand Prix de Paris on Sunday, as the fact that the André Fabre-trained winner isn’t favourite for the Arc should tell you. Gallante was firmly among the outsiders even for Sunday’s race and the only logical explanation for his marked improvement (he’s now rated 120) is that he’s benefitted from the step up to 12 furlongs, as his pedigree would suggest. That said, there would be no obvious reason to expect a different result were he to meet the more highly-vaunted Prince Gibraltar (119) again.
There’s a bigger story hidden behind Gallante’s unexpected ascension to Group 1 winner, that of the standard of France’s three-year-old colts. They’re clearly behind their British and Irish rivals this year- indeed, pound for pound even the Germans are doing better- so take this as a caveat emptor should any of them show up over here through the summer.
