Sergio Perez is likely to leave Red Bull after Abu Dhabi's finale, with Franco Colapinto no longer in the running as a contender for his seat.

After weeks of speculation, Colapinto is understood to have been turned down by Red Bull for a seat with either of their two teams, as the Milton Keynes-based squad eyes up changes to its driver line-up for F1 2025.

Colapinto's stellar start to life in Formula 1, following his promotion to replace the struggling Logan Sargeant at Williams, led to interest from Red Bull as a possible replacement for Sergio Perez for F1 2025.

The Mexican driver has failed to contribute in a significant way to Red Bull's Constructors' Championship in 2024, with Max Verstappen's points tally dwarfing that of Perez as the defending Champions slipped to third in the title chase after back-to-back victories in 2022 and '23.

With Williams and James Vowles having already committed to Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz for 2025, Vowles went to bat for Colapinto on the driver market – talks between Red Bull and Colapinto advancing to the stage of the Argentinean driver becoming a prime candidate for Perez's seat in the wake of strong results in his early races.

But Colapinto's inexperience inevitably started to show as the pressure ramped up, with costly crashes in Brazil and Las Vegas leading to Red Bull's interest cooling – to the point that he was ruled out of contention for a seat with the main team, although the possibility remained that a seat with VCARB could be on the table.

According to media reports the VCARB possibility has now also shut on Colapinto, with a decision being reached early in the Qatar Grand Prix weekend to turn down his services.

It's also understood that Colapinto's chances of securing a seat with Alpine – which had been speculated as a possibility with Colapinto replacing Jack Doohan – have also dwindled significantly with Alpine advisor Flavio Briatore also cooling his interest in the Argentinean.

"He, for sure, is a talent that's looking to earn his permanent place in Formula 1," Christian Horner said of Colapinto after the Qatar Grand Prix.

"We have a great pool of talent within the Red Bull junior team, and I'm sure Franco will find his way onto the grid in the future."

"You're always keeping your eye on what the market is in all teams but we have the strength and depth in the junior programme."

With only one vacant seat on the grid for F1 2025, it would now appear that Colapinto is without an option to be on the grid next season as Red Bull has opted to turn towards the strength of its junior driver programme, rumours surrounding a return of Daniel Ricciardo or a bid to secure Carlos Sainz from his contract with Williams are understood to be completely off the table.

What is the current state of the driver market for next season?

With Perez's underwhelming form contributing to Red Bull's downfall as world champions, it's understood, short of a stunning result in the final race of the season, the Mexican driver will be replaced in the senior team.

The leading contenders for the seat are Kiwi driver Liam Lawson, who is on a (so far) solid six-race audition with the VCARB squad, while Yuki Tsunoda, long dismissed as a possibility throughout this season, is also in contention for promotion for 2025 after contributing two-thirds of the Faenza-based squad's points tally.

Should Lawson or Tsunoda step up to Red Bull Racing over the winter, it's expected Isack Hadjar, Red Bull's leading light in Formula 2, will be promoted to VCARB. The 20-year-old French driver currently occupies second in the F2 series, and finished second in the feature race in Qatar on Sunday.

"It was good to see Isack Hadjar doing a good job today in Formula 2 as well," Horner said.

"I think there's what, half a point between the drivers going into the final race in Abu Dhabi. Liam and Yuki were very closely matched in that race [Qatar], in terms of pace, so we've got a full stable of drivers."

The driver line-ups at both Red Bull teams are a matter for consideration in the immediate post-season, with the focus believed to be initially set to be on the nature of the split between Perez and Red Bull – the Mexican is likely to be offered a similar ambassadorship role to Daniel Ricciardo for 2025, should he choose to accept it.

It is only once this split is resolved that a decision between Tsunoda and Lawson is likely to be made.