Shane Lowry will look to defend his BMQ PGA Championship title as the DP World Tour crosses the Irish sea for the European Tour’s designated ‘premier’ event.
Lowry won a shortened 54-hole 2022 edition at Wentworth Club in Surrey by one stroke, ahead of Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm with all three in contention again this year.
Irishman Lowry looked particularly good at the recent Irish Open, finishing T3 with a –12. He’s hit form at the right time, buoyed by his wildcard Ryder Cup selection, and atop-tenn finish at the Wentworth Club should be a good bet. He’s 21/1 to take the overall win.
Rory McIlroy is, of course, amongst the clear favourites and is 8/1 to win a second title in this event, second only to the Norwegian Victor Hovland who is 43/5.
A disappointing +2 final round at the Irish Open saw McIlroy finish T16, and while offers for a Hovland top-five should intrigue, a top ten or even a top-five finish for McIlroy will likely be too risky and too short to offer value.
One of those bets for Jon Rahm, however, could be worth it. Twice he has finished a runner-up at Wentworth and he has some solid 2023 results, led by his Masters victory and T2 at The Open at Royal Liverpool.
The Spaniard is 43/5 to win in Surrey, but if looking for a bet on a clear winner from the favourites then Lowry is probably the punt to go for.
That’s especially true given that there is some solid similarity between the host course of the Irish Open and BMW PGA Championship. The Wentworth Club tournament, like that at the K Club, will be won by the golfer who is best on the approach and subsequently at making the greens.
Irish Open champion Victor Normann was solid across all those key stats: 5th in shots gained from tee to green, 16th for greens in regulation and 11th for scrambling. He could be a threat again in England, with the Swede priced at 45/1.
But looking at the tour average for those stats, it’s a different Swede who appears to be best positioned for a solid tournament in Surrey: Alexander Björk.
Priced at 54/1 for the win he will have solid odds for top-ten and top-five finishes and his stats back him to do so: he is top for shots gained on approach, top for scrambling and eighth for greens in regulation.
Jordan Smith is another to consider. He was well in the fight for victory in Ireland before a horror final two rounds saw him finish T12. Quality in a number of key stats, he should at least be pushing for a top ten finish on home soil with a win priced at 43/1.
