Is the Mackinnon Stks the race it once was from a Melbourne Cup point of view?

Last year helped give it back some cred. Entrants often used the race as their final hit out for the Tuesday. Sometimes their runs were slashing wins like Let's Elope, Empire Rose or Rogan Josh while others required greater inspection such as Viewed, Kensei or Subzero. However as a form line to the Melbourne Cup the last horse to do the double was Rogan Josh. See if we can find the 2011 winner.

• 2006 – DESERT WAR 6g (Desert King x High Heels) ($7)

Jockey: Chris Munce, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 7, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 2:02.38, 600m Sectional: 36.08

Margin: 2.5L, Track: Dead, Starters: 15

2nd: Growl (57.5kg), 3rd: Aqua D'Amore (55.5kg)

Timeform Rating: 126

The champion of the Randwick mile hadn't had a lot of fun in his trips to Melbourne. A poor Caulfield Cup off a strange lead in prep in '04 and Cox Plate, Mackinnon and Emirates Stks shockers in '05 all came off excellence in them Epsom. Maybe he used all his petrol in those mile triumphs. In 2006 he went via the Epsom again but this time he was given a freshen up before the venture to Flemington. One factor played right into Desert War's hands on this day. The track harboured an horrendous leader bias and 6-1 was a juicy price to see if he the bias remained for the 7th race. He Desert War got that easy lead while Roman Arch, Aqua D'Amore and Growl filed in behind. Chris Munce let him stride and he opened up a 2L margin with 5L to 3rd up by the half way mark. With nothing making ground, Munce took off at the 600 as horses like El Segundo barely made a dent. As he got older the 2000 was probably a better fit for him with his high cruising speed and his win gave Munce 2 x G1s and Gai three wins on a landmark day.

• 2007 – SIRMIONE 4g (Encosta de Lago x World Guide) ($61)

Jockey: Peter Mertens, Trainer: Bart Cummings

Barrier: 10, Weight: 58.5kg

Gross Time: 2:02.32, 600m Sectional: 35.36

Margin: 1.8L, Track: Good, Starters: 14

2nd: Princess Coup (56.0kg), 3rd: Zipping (59.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 119

Most Mackinnon winners of recent years have been well exposed, been in good form and duly right in the market. Then along comes Sirmione. A Caulfield Cup preparation founded mainly on open handicaps conjured up about exactly what his form had exposed – a well beaten 11L 12th. But in Bart's inimitable style, he was barely fazed. He was a Flemington horse and wanted 2000m. In a fast run race, Annenkov, Captious and 3yo Pillar of Hercules led. Peter Mertens let Sirmione get far back and while other WFA stars like Haradasun, Miss Finland and Devil Moon needed to get tracking so they didn't miss the boat, Mertens could play the stalker. At the furlong it looked like Sirmione had joined in at the top of the straight as the handicappers shined. His win gave Bart his 10th Mackinnon and G1 winner No 248.

• 2008 – THESEO 5g (Danewin x Ozone Sand) ($6)

Jockey: Nash Rawiller, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 2, Weight: 59.0kg

Gross Time: 2:03.84, 600m Sectional: 33.80

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 11

2nd: Barbaricus (58.5kg), 3rd: Sirmione (59.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 121

This is becoming the race that Gai Waterhouse has called her own in Melbourne town. All Our Mob, Grand Armee and Desert War have all raced on the pace and dominated. In Theseo she had an honest trier who brought with him good form and great fitness after an Epsom win and close up in the Cox Plate. Arlington led with Barbaricus outside and Theseo tailing behind. In a race which didn't change for a long way, Barbaricus strode to the lead at the 300 but in doing so allowed the Star Thoroughbreds horse out. They cleared away to fight it out. Nose for nose over the last 100m, Gai's boy put his down when it counted to give her another big Derby day after Northern Meteor's win. Behind them Viewed ran last being checked in the straight – so what........ famous last words.

• 2009 – SCENIC SHOT 7g (Scenic x Sweepshot) ($8.50)

Jockey: Shane Scriven, Trainer: Dan Morton

Barrier: 6, Weight: 59.0kg

Gross Time: 2:03.46, 600m Sectional: 34.44

Margin: 2L, Track: Good, Starters: 11

2nd: Miss Maren (57.0kg), 3rd: Viewed (59.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 123

Scenic Shot had an outstanding Brisbane campaign. He won the Doomben Cup, O'Shea Stks and the topped it off with the Brisbane Cup under a whopping 60kg. So winning those races meant he deserved a crack at the big league again. The third in the Turnbull was good enough to suggest they weren't wasting their time. He had the toughest run in the Cox Plate making the first move and still held on for fifth. Despite that run he wasn't near fav as punters were sold on Rangirangdoo's big MV win. The race was upset before the start when Zipping went under the gates and was scratched throwing his Cup chances out the window. Also Vigor had been taken out on race morning as the connections rolled the dice to make the Melb Cup – a decision they will regret forever now. Cima de Triomphe led this time by a margin and it gave the stayers a chance to run on. Scenic Shot pulled out at the 700m again to get clear running and it was the winning move. While Miss Maren showed she was a good 2000m mare again and Viewed ran home strongly, the winner gave his team another triumph after the Scenic Blast celebrations earlier in the year. It also gave Scriven some rebuttal for Octagonal all those year's ago in the Derby.

• 2010 – SO YOU THINK 4h (High Chaparral x Triassic) ($1.57 fav)

Jockey: Steve Arnold, Trainer: Bart Cummings

Barrier: 8, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 2:04.92, 600m Sectional: 35.18

Margin: 4L, Track: Dead, Starters: 12

2nd: Descarado (58.0kg), 3rd: Ginga Dude (59.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 133

Of all his Spring wins, this was the best rated and most obvious evidence of greatness. It was not that field was outstanding from a WFA perspective but it was the manner of the demolition. Surely he was on song for the perhaps the equal of Makybe Diva's day. The Caulfield Cup winner Descarado and Ginga Dude strode forward in the heavy rain. Steve Arnold was right on their tails. He was poised and ready at the 350m mark and just unloaded a big sprint. As Greg Miles said it was beautiful to watch with an easy four lengths beyond the rivals. It was onto the Melbourne Cup now and a shot at immortality and to give Bart just one more string to his incredible Flemington story. The odds just kept on shortening as the days went on.

RACE PROFILE

o The last Cox Plate winner to complete double before So You Think was 20 years ago - Better Loosen Up. There were 3 in quick succession before him (Dulcify, Rising Prince, Rubiton).

o Barriers have been of little importance.

o Sydney has won 6 of the last 9 runnings.

o Bart Cummings has won 11 Mackinnons, Gai had four now herself.

o Mostly favoured runners to the fore except the odd bolt from the blue like Sirmione or La Bella Dama.

o Before Sirmione's late charge, most Mackinnons have been won by those on or near the pace.

o Mares don't have a good record with only La Bella Dama ('01), Champagne ('98), Let's Elope ('91), Horlicks ('89) & Empire Rose ('88) winning in the last 37 years.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner – 4yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <5-8> - 4 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner – $13

o Breakdown of winners – 7 geldings, 1 mares & 2 entires

o Last 10 Years Cox Plate / Mackinnon Stks double – So You Think ('10)

o Last 10 Years Liston Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Lad of the Manor ('05)

o Last 10 Years Hill Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Desert War ('06)

o Last 10 Years George Main / Mackinnon Stks double – Grand Armee ('04)

o Last 10 Years Dato Tan Chin Nam Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Lad of the Manor ('05)

o Last 10 Years Underwood Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – So You Think ('10), Oliver Twist ('00)

o Last 10 Years Epsom Hcp / Mackinnon Stks double – Theseo ('08)

o Last 10 Years Yalumba Stks / Mackinnon Stks – So You Think ('10), Lonhro ('02)

o Last 10 Years Stutt Stks / Norman Robinson / Mackinnon Stks treble – Casual Pass ('03)

o Last 10 Years Grand Prix / Mackinnon Stks double – Sirmione ('07)

o Last 10 Years Chipping Norton Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Desert War ('06)

o Last 10 Years Queen Elizabeth Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Grand Armee ('04)

o Last 10 Years Chelmsford Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Lonhro ('02)

o Last 10 Years Tesio Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – La Bella Dama ('01)

o Last 10 Years Brisbane Cup-Doomben Cup / Mackinnon Stks double – Scenic Shot ('09)

SUMMARY & SELECTIONS

We have long said the WFA horses this last few years are ordinary bar So You Think and this is not much different. Most of the new blood to be considered are old stayers or Coongy form.

The speed looks to come from Midas Touch and Mourayan with Ginga Dude, Lights Of Heaven and Glass Harmonium right there if able to jump.

The Hickmott team will want it run at a decent tempo to keep it a staying race not a sit and sprint which is fair enough on the way to the Cup.

With that in mind why couldn't the old boy run over them again. Efficient absolutely adores Flemington after a few runs having won the VRC Derby, Melbourne Cup and Turnbull here.

If they can run on, which sometimes doesn't occur first day of the carnival, he could tack on and swoop home. His Cox Plate run was a cracker and if he's in the right frame health wise he looks great value.

His stablemate Midas Touch has done nothing wrong whatsoever this Spring, racing tough on speed.

Had a nice break and would have been ticking over in the lead up to the Cups. 2000m is also up his alley.

The one who comes from left field a bit is Lights Of Heaven. She tried hard in the Caulfield Stks but is one of the few avoiding either Caulfield Cup day or Cox Plate day.

Reported to be working well and the stable go OK.

There is one interesting fact for the day given last week. Chris Waller has two entrants and they are both drawn inside the two horses who played up in the Cox Plate.

Selection: (1) EFFICIENT

Hardest to Beat: (3) MIDAS TOUCH

Best Roughie: (14) LIGHTS OF HEAVEN