Punters will be rejoicing a return to the city for racing in Melbourne this Saturday. The rail may be out on Normanby Road but at least it's at Caulfield!

One of the more interesting races on the card is the last where our bet of the day is Creativity, second-up off a very solid return at Ballarat.

The interesting thing about that Ballarat race was that it came before the rain hit, making assessing the race fairly tricky. For those looking to quantify things there is going to be a wider margin for error, fewer data points to use, and more of a reliance on prior information.

It's this uncertainty that we can look to gamble on. Creativity is a smart horse with plenty of upside and it's very easy to take a positive view of that first up run. We certainly are and betting around the mare will be interesting.

If we are taking an optimistic view of that form we should be upbeat about the second race on the card where Sacred Sham and El Rada look well placed.

The former is the more likely winner of that pair, having been just first up at Ballarat, but there is each way appeal in El Rada who is bigger odds from a wide draw.

Jordan Childs is riding confidently of late and the stable continue to find themselves among the winners. There are enough positives there to bet without fear of the barrier.

THE MELBOURNE MAIL

Bet Of The Day: Race 9 #13 Creativity @ $4.50

Each Way Play: Race 2 #13 El Rada @ $9.00