The weather continues to heat up in the wake of the spring carnival but not nearly at the rate of the Ellerton and Zahra team.
The Ellerton/Zahra stable are on a hot streak heading into the summer months, training 21 winners since the start of November at a rate of 161 winners for every 100 expected by the market - roughly double their long term value.
Since the start of 2010 and the start of Ellerton and Zahra's official partnership they have saddled up 2982 runners for 377 winners at a rate of 88 winners for every 100 expected by the market.
The stable have sent out 85 runners since the start of November, so we are dealing with a very small sample and could just be looking at a random streak, but it is interesting to note that the stable's horses have been more positive in-running in that time.
Over the long term the stable's runners have a median settling position (where the horse was positioned in the race at the first call) of 5th. Since November that number has improved a whole position to 4th.
That may not seem a significant shift (and we should reinforce that we are looking at a small sample and potentially just random noise) but to put it in some context Gai Waterhouse's horses, famous for being positive early, have a median settling position of 3rd whereas horses trained by Bart Cummings, famously patient, settled 6th, so these numbers move in a fairly tight bracket.
So the stable are potentially being more positive with their horses and that is potentially paying dividends that the market is yet to pick up on.
Whether we have stumbled onto a lot of nothing there, or something more significant, we are happy to ride the wave for now and one that looks to be breaking for us this Saturday is Durendal in race eight.
It's a good competitive race for the time of year but Durendal followed up a strong effort in the form handicap of Cup week at Flemington with a new peak to win at Ballarat last time (benefiting from a positive ride) and that figure should stand him in good stead for this. The prospects for further improvement make him an appealing bet at better than $4.00.
For an each way play we will go to race three and Niccoco who looks over the odds coming off a strong race at the Valley where he battled on well after settling a little bit too close to what was a testing gallop.
He softened up late but he was behind a potentially smart filly and was entitled do given the way the race was run. It could well bring him right on for this and $9.00 looks to undersell his chances.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #9 Durendal @ $4.20
Each Way Play: Race 3 #11 Niccoco @ $9.00
