Well the Brisbane Winter Carnival is over for another year, but we’re not quite in hibernation yet with the running of the Caloundra Cup this weekend.
Mr O’Ceirin has come up the short-priced favourite and fair enough after a solid winter carnival against tougher opposition, but this race isn’t quite that simple.
He’d have certainly liked a bit more rain over the last 48 hours but that still shouldn’t be an issue.
In any event he’ll have to reel in Ipswich Cup winner Brave Ali if he wants to win this.
And don’t be surprised to see the old warrior Ironstein work home well late on to snap a winless run which is close to tipping the 1000-day mark.
I’m looking earlier in the card for the value today.
In the very first I’m prepared to take on Anna Lizzie resuming form a break, after coming up as the $4 favourite.
She sprints well fresh and has trialled well leading into this but I reckon this is still a fraction short for her, especially against a pretty decent bunch of mares today.
Avaladyluck looks poised for a deserved win, dropping back to this grade.
She wasn’t far off Ellawisdom in the Bright Shadow Quality two back then was stuck wide in the Gai Waterhouse Classic two weeks back beaten 3.3L.
She’s on the minimum again today and will find this a fair bit easier.
Saturn Rock comes through the same two races and should also be respected while Little Brown Horse returned to winning ways last time and will be hard to hold out again today.
Anna Lizzie looks to have plenty on her plate here, particularly at the $4 quote.
Next up is the Summerveld Racing Stables three-year-old Handicap (1000m) where it looks like Agitate can finally return to the winner’s circle.
He’s been good to us this winter, in that we’ve laid him twice over 1200m and he’s been run down both times.
Now he’s back to 1000m and it’s a completely different story.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s the fastest horse out of the gates in Queensland.
He’s usually two or three in front after 100m, and he’s very hard to reel in.
That’s been his pattern all campaign – he won the Mick Dittman Plate four back over 1110m holding them all at bay, but has finished second in his last three over 1200m.
He just can’t quite run the 1200m out.
Now he’s finally back to his pet trip and he should prove too good. Take the $3 on offer while you still can. Good Job Bro and Heza Bobby Dazzler are both handy gallopers but they’re not as speedy as Agitate.
Fast forward to the Glasshouse Handicap (1400m), and I like the look of Playitstraight here as an each-way chance at $8.
He’s been very good in two runs since resuming this campaign, picking right up where he left off last campaign in winning the Ballina Cup (1600m).
If anything he’s in even better form than when he won the Ballina Cup.
He was beaten a nose resuming at Doomben then not far off Alma’s Fury in the Eye Liner Stakes two weeks back in third spot.
He meets Alma’s Fury half a kilogram better off today and just goes that little bit further today which might well be enough for him to turn the tables.
This is a decent race, but Playitstraight is a model of consistency and should be getting home as well as any of them.
Alma’s Fury is the one to beat again, but he’s never been overly reliable.
Belltone drops a long way back in grade while Jetset Lad should also be getting home well although he risks getting into an awkward spot from the inside gate if he gets back like he did in the Eye Liner.
Have a go each way at the unfashionable but talented Playitstraight.
BANKER: Race 2 No 1 Agitate $3
BET OF THE DAY: Race 6 No 10 Playitstraight $8
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1 No 2 Anna Lizzie $4
