There looks to be plenty of value around at Doomben tomorrow so let’s get stuck right into it.
I’m pretty keen on Smiles For Layla to bounce back to winning ways here after missing by a nose behind Senta Desert in tougher two weeks back at Eagle Farm.
She’s lines up in the one-metro-win handicap over 2100m and looks to have a slight class edge on these, particularly if there’s some give in the track.
Two weeks back she should’ve won plain and simply. She reared at the start, settled a mile back, rounded the bend five deep and ran on strongly for a narrow miss.
It was arguably the best run of her career, and rated about 3kg better than her winning effort at Eagle Farm back in January.
At $4.60 she looks excellent value today against a weaker field than what she took on last time.
Casarati is the biggest danger after pulling clear for a soft win over 1800m last time against open three-year-old opposition.
He’s up against the older horses today for just the second time this campaign, and that’s certainly a significant factor.
That last win was impressive, he pulled away from them with plenty in hand, and that explains his $4.20 price tag for this one.
I suspect the bubble might just burst today although he should put up another solid performance.
Next up we’ll take on one of the favourites in the three-year-old handicap, the first leg of the quaddie over 1100m.
Tisani Tomso is well in the market at $4.80, but he simply doesn’t look capable of running out a strong 1100m.
Don’t get be wrong, he’s a speedy operator and should be in this for a long time but I doubt he can hold out this lot in the final furlong.
He was beaten narrowly by Heza Bobby Dazzler over 900m three weeks back at Gold Coast and the pair clash again today.
This Is War resumed with a solid win at Toowoomba and looks to have a bit up his sleeve while Craiglea Cruz is back in grade and is a strong six-furlong horse.
At the price I’m more than happy to take on Tisani Tomso.
Moving along to the Class 6 Plate (1350m) I think Escoffier is ready to win again, and at $4.20 he looks a very attractive proposition.
He rates particularly well for this off a pair of second placings in similar at Eagle Farm, which followed an impressive win there back in January.
He finds an easier looking field here and drops to just 54kg with the apprentice staying on.
Running through the other main chances in the market, this looks a very winnable race.
Cum Dividend is short at $4.60 but he’s a little unreliable and would need a slow track or better I’d think to be winning this.
Cracco has been well supported off a solid win in the last here three weeks ago and loves this track and distance. He does carry an extra 3kg today though which might just be enough to stop him.
Pitt Street is the wildcard up from Newcastle, and he’s been running well in tougher down at Randwick this campaign. He hasn’t won in more than a year though which is a slight concern.
There’s enough fat in the Escoffier price to have a play here.
BANKER: Race 6 No 8 Escoffier @ $4.20
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5 No 2 Tisani Tomso @ $4.80
PLAY OF THE DAY: Race 4 No 6 Smiles For Layla @ $4.60
