He may not be the most fashionable horse on a strong Moonee Valley card but the talented Bel Thor is fancied to get the job done for punters this weekend.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Bel Thor has been on the radar since he swept past a maiden field at Bendigo almost 12 months ago to the day, earning a rating of 86p.
He was unable to build on that figure in a handful of starts that followed before stepping up in trip at the back of last prep. Placings at Caulfield and Flemington in the autumn, over 2000m and 2500m respectively, returned improved form and this campaign he has come back as well as ever.
A good win at Ballarat and a narrow second at Flemington last time are seen as the best pieces of current form in the book coming into a race where most are past their best or at their level.
He should continue to improve, getting back to what is seen as his ideal trip today, and the $3.50 around is an appealing bet.
Another that appeals is the resuming Shamus Award who finished last campaign with a pair of strong efforts in the Blue Diamond and the VRC Sires.
That form has him mighty well placed here and while his maiden status could be seen as a concern by some it sees him avoid penalty despite having the pick of the form on offer.
He profiles as a solid Guineas hope and should be giving this a big shake. His current price, around $7.50, is more than fair.
Angels Beach is a lightly raced mare who has shown good ability in her short career to date but she has been priced up in the fifth as if she has already achieved what she has promised too.
While she is undoubtedly a mare heading in the right direction she faces better performed mares in this with no great pull in the weights.
Based on the official handicapper’s figures she is at a 7.5kg disadvantage before the gates even open and while that gap is not nearly as pronounced under the Timeform scale she still has a task in front of her. A task that looks undervalued by the market.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL:
Banker: Race 7 #9 Bel Thor @ $3.50
Play Of The Day: Race 4 #3 Shamus Award @ $7.50
Lay Of The Day: Race 5 #13 Angels Beach @ $3.50
