The three-year-old fillies come out to play this weekend at Eagle Farm in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks over a mile and a half, and just like last year it’ll likely be run on a rain-affected track.
Photo by Racing and Sports
There was plenty of rain on Thursday and the worst of it is probably behind us, but Eagle Farm certainly isn’t the fastest draining surface in Australia.
Punters beware – a yielding track combined with three-year-old fillies doesn’t exactly offer an ideal betting proposition.
The strength of the race this year is fair with Crown Oaks winner Dear Demi leading the charge.
It almost feels like the hardy Clarry Conners filly has been up since the spring. She did in fact have a few months off over the summer, and in seven runs this campaign Dear Demi hasn’t returned to the form she showed over the spring.
That’s despite winning the Surround Stakes (1400m) at Warwick Farm in March, and The Roses (2000m) at Doomben two weeks ago.
This is Dear Demi’s third-straight week of racing, and she’s currently favourite to win the race despite finishing a well-held sixth in the Grand Prix Stakes (2200m) last weekend.
The spacious Eagle Farm track should suit her, but she looks to be at the end of her tether and there are plenty of these lining up to beat her.
Pat Carey’s next promising stayer Gondokoro is at the front of the queue and is out for revenge after going down by a nose to Dear Demi in The Roses two weekends ago. Jockey Rhys McLeod’s post-race protest fell on deaf ears.
Gai Waterhouse has a couple of handy ones lining up in Vaquera and Porcellanus while Peter Moody’s Miss Zenella looks a capable type.
Dear Demi is a $3.60 chance and I’d be steering well clear of that.
The other highlight on the card is the Queensland Guineas (1400m) and it promises to be an absolute cracker.
It's a great betting race with the likes of Sizzling, Academus, Platinum Kingdom and Boban all well in the market.
I'm in Sizzling's corner, now he's back at Eagle Farm, and it's not often you get a price around $5 for this guy. But he'd want to be on his game.
Early on in the day is where you can set yourself up.
Sir Moments won the Dalrello Stakes (1200m) pretty impressively two weeks back at Doomben after copping a bump 300m from home.
He picked himself up and powered to the line, pulling away late for an impressive win.
He lines up in the Sirromet The Phoenix and gets out to 1400m now on the spacious Eagle Farm track. Take the even money that he’ll go back to back.
On a tricky day in Brisbane, the winners could be hard to come by but there is value to be had.
Longshoreman is a capable type lining up in the Treasury Casino Spear Chief (1500m), and he’s ticking all the right boxes here.
He’s third-up after two fast-finishing efforts over shorter this campaign, gets back to Eagle Farm, gets out to a longer trip and potentially lands on a slow track.
If the track’s a slow or worse, he’ll be very tough to hold out. The $7 looks an each-way bet to nothing.
Another third-up galloper is looking the goods in the next on the card.
John O’Shea’s Bound To Blush lines up in the Bright Shadow Handicap (1200m), out to build on an impressive second placing in last weekend’s Glenlogan Park Stakes (1350m) at Doomben.
Satin Shoes’ presence in this race has dropped Bound To Blush to just 54kg, and back over her pet trip of six furlongs she looks mighty hard to beat. Help yourself to the $4.20.
BRISBANE BETS
BANKER: SIR MOMENTS @ $2.10
PLAY OF THE DAY: LONGSHOREMAN @ $7
LAY OF THE DAY: DEAR DEMI @ $3.60
