A look at the chances of every runner in the $150,000 Newhaven Park Mid North Coast Country Championships (1400m) at Tuncurry on Sunday.
1. Sir Ravanelli (Terry Evans, Tuncurry): There's no doubt this grey is a talent and what he showed in his first-up win at Port Macquarie under 61.5kg was an ability to find the line strongly when he's able to settle. Whether he can get that opportunity from a tricky gate is what faces jockey Darryl Mclellan as he may be exposed and he does need to tick that 1400m box. Granted both attempts have come in Highways and he hasn't been beaten far. Locally trained and is one of the few horses engaged to have raced on the Tuncurry track. All things being equal he's an excellent chance.
2. Gold Card (Peter Graham, Port Macquarie): Contested this race last year at Taree at just his fifth start as a $21 chance and finished tenth. Since then he's won two more races, both over 1250m at Taree, and his warm up run for this was a late finishing seventh at Grafton on January 22. He settled well back from a wide gate there and really only looked to be getting warm on the line. Huge drifter in betting that day too. He's shown an ability to settle closer in the past and gets that opportunity. Just yet to prove himself at the 1400m.
3. Swamp Nation (Glen Milligan, Taree): Won this race a year ago with a late burst before finishing down the track in the Final. There were excuses for her Randwick failure in December and all other runs this time in have suggested she's going as well as ever. Far too good for Boncassie in the Pink Silks Cup at Coffs Harbour a month ago an she's had a tickover trial win since. Just gets the 1400m so will need a nice run but she's the highest rated horse in the race and commands some respect.
4. Buck Pharoah (Neil Godbolt, Port Macquarie): Has built a consistent record and deserves a shot though there has to be a huge question mark over the 1400m with him. Sir Ravanelli easily accounted for him when they met at Port Macquarie then at the same track last week he led and seemed to have his chance before weakening into fourth as a $21 chance. This is harder, it wouldn't surprise to see him give some cheek but appears to be up against it.
5. Optimo (Marc Quinn, Port Macquarie): If there's one horse that's under the odds it's this fellow. He has a racing pattern that relies on a lot of luck and you'd imagine from the near outside barrier he'll be conservative because racing closer to the pace hasn't worked so well in two recent runs. In his favour on his last start second at Port Macquarie, where he sat handy and didn't quicken but held his ground, is a 3kg weight drop but against him is that barrier. It wouldn't be a total shock if he swamped them, he has performed well in a couple of 1400m Highways, but will need the breaks.
6. Evocator (Jenny Graham, Port Macquarie): Where this gelding settles in the run could be crucial to his chances, the blinkers going on signals intent that he could take some advantage of an inside gate. Forgive his run in the Highway at Rosehill where he was held up for most of the last 600m and was only beaten just over two lengths. Dynamic in his win at Taree prior to that and has had a trial to clean out for this race. If he's within range in the last 200m he can take holding out.
7. Vilified (Colt Prosser, Wauchope): The only horse in the field as it stands to have won a race at this track. That said there has to be a huge doubt over him at 1400m. He's produced strong finishing to win twice at 1000m this preparation but his two runs in Highways have been fair efforts, just working to the line. The last one was on a heavy track so perhaps being a little forgiving there. He will get back in the field from the wide draw and is probably his right price.
8. Run Rory Run (Angela Graham, Port Macquarie): Shapes as a big improver out of the Grafton race back on January 22 where he resumed as a $10 chance and weakened after sitting third and fourth to beat four home. Showed plenty of promise with on pace wins at Port Macquarie in the early spring, albeit on heavy tracks, and from the middle draw he should roll forward with the lead potentially up for grabs. Will need to produce his best but no shock if he gives a sight at odds.
9. Imatruestar (Grant Jobson, Taree): Ran an eye-catching fourth in this race last year and to be fair has been a bit below par since then. There has been some merit in his last few, he was strong late at Tamworth under a big weight and struck a heavy track at the Beaumont track two weeks ago. Inclined to say he'll need a career best but as we saw last year he's capable of putting himself somewhere in the finish if he gets the breaks.
10. Lucky Sham (Neil Godbolt, Port Macquarie): Finished alongside Optimo at Port Macquarie last start – one is a $5 chance and the other $26 and she meets him 2.5kg better. That was her best effort for a little while though so perhaps that's understandable. She was a Highway winner back in April last year on a heavy track. Just the one attempt at 1400m and that was in December 2020 at Flemington so no guide there on her prowess.
11. Par Avion (Terry Evans, Tuncurry): Had a hard luck story in this race last year, her seventh placing not doing her justice. It's 18 months since her last win so that has to be a bit of a concern and coming into this race off a second last in the Queen Of The North isn't ideal. Given her size she will appreciate the 4kg less and the barrier will allow her to find a spot probably midfield. Her best form is good enough to be a player, it's just whether she's racing at her best that is the gamble.
12. Little Prophet (Colt Prosser, Wauchope): Runner-up in this race in 2022 as a $19 chance but her form of late would suggest she's not going as well. All three runs back have come in Highways. There was a glimmer in her latest run at Rosehill where she loomed as a big threat about 300m out but felt the pinch in the last bit to run ninth but beaten 2.5 lengths. She was 1100m up to 1500m there and gets gate one. If she's going to find her form this time in she has a good set up to do it. Outside chance.
13. Agirlsbestfriend (Marc Quinn, Port Macquarie): Any track pattern will be crucial to this promising filly's chances as she will likely be midfield or worse in the run but has shown a turn of foot that has to be seen to be believed. Go back and watch her win at Coffs Harbour back on December 29 for proof of that. Took advantage of a smaller field to canter in at Muswellbrook before her Highway fourth at Rosehill where she fleetingly looked like she would pick them up. Least experienced horse in the race but arguably the most exciting. Definite chance.
14. Darci Diva (SCRATCHED)
15. Ugly Nicos (Paul Shailer, Port Macquarie): Seen worse $23 chances that this consistent gelding but at the same time he's out of his class as the winner of just one race so far (from only eight starts). Bumped into a handy one three starts back but ran well then hit the front in his past two before being swamped at a mile at Taree, the latest with 61.5kg. Back to 1400m is ideal and he might find a spot in the first four or five and could surprise.
