With all but one of the nominations for Saturday’s Group 1 $500,000 Winx Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick contesting the race first-up it could prove to be a tricky puzzle for punters relying on weighing up the class factor, trial performances and where last season’s three-year-olds stand.
It's a race that has been dominated by Chris Waller, winning five of the last six editions including three with Winx, and Sydney's premier trainer has a strong hand again with five of the 15 entries headed by last year's winner Verry Elleegant.
Let's take a look at the contenders for the 2021 edition:
Brandenburg (John Sargent): If his three late autumn/early winter runs are any indication then his future is going to be at a middle distance, or at least when he gets to a mile. That said he didn't have a lot of luck at 1400m, prior to his win in The Coast albeit in a Benchmark 100. He should have some fitness on his side off a short break and with two trials but expecting him to find it too short.
Cascadian (James Cummings): The Doncaster winner with the distinctive face returns to the scene of his biggest win and he backed it up before a spell running a close third in the All Aged under the same conditions as Saturday's race. What we know about Cascadian is he very rarely runs a bad race, it's just his backmarker style has made it tougher to win regularly now he's at the top level. But he is one horse resuming who should be very effective at 1400m.
Colette (James Cummings): Winner of the autumn equivalent, the Apollo Stakes, first-up last preparation. That was on a soft 7 track though and only one of her six career wins have come on good tracks, a surface she's very likely to strike on Saturday. An Oaks winner and Golden Eagle winner so she is versatile but would be prepared to risk at 1400m on a good track.
Dreamforce (John Thompson): The designated leader of the field, this nine-year-old is always a threat when he strikes a good track and some control. Twelve of his 13 career wins are on good tracks and he boasts a strong first-up record and seven wins at 1400m. Can't knock his two trials without blinkers and not leading. It'll come down to barrier draws and what kind of lead he's allowed but he can give a sight.
Hungry Heart (Chris Waller): The dominant filly over distance in the autumn, there'll be plenty of interest in how she makes the transition at four. In her favour is she's very much a good track horse and her early runs last prep were on rain affected ground, when she struck good tracks she cleaned up the Phar Lap, Vinery and Oaks. No doubt she will be running on.
Imaging (Chris Waller): After a narrow first-up defeat in the Orr Stakes the wheels fell off to a degree through the autumn though his Stradbroke effort had plenty of merit. The pluses for him are the trip and his first-up record. He has, though, only recorded one minor placing in seven starts at Randwick. He ran fourth in this race last year and is the type of horse that could easily run into the placings if he gets the breaks.
Keiai Nautique (Matthew Smith): A brother to multiple Group 1 winner Fierce Impact making his local debut for the same stable and he's very hard to get a line on from the trials in small fields. His best Japanese form would see him very competitive and he'll relish a track on the firm side. Very much a watch and learn but any support would be worth taking note of.
Kolding (Chris Waller): Race fitness is the big advantage on his side with a first-up run in the Missile Stakes (1200m) under his belt. It seems he was either a little underdone or ridden too close in that race, could be a combination. He won the All Aged on a Good 4 in the autumn and he's very reliable at this level when he strikes those conditions. If he draws well he's a serious threat.
Master Of Wine (Team Hawkes): There's every chance his best is behind him or he needs a wet track at the top level. Since his outstanding fourth in Addeybb's first Queen Elizabeth he's been unplaced in seven straight Group 1 tests and ran a fair third in a Neville Sellwood in April. Can sprint well fresh but prefer him in the wet at this trip.
Mo'Unga (Annabel Neasham): The Rosehill Guineas winner was tried in our best handicap and weight-for-age middle distance contest in the autumn and he wasn't disgraced in either so it'll be interesting to see where he stands at four. He's yet to miss a place first-up, albeit in easier company, and could be a little sharper than some of the more seasoned 2000m horses here.
Mount Popa (Team Hawkes): Promising stayer resuming in a race that should be too short for him at this level, his first attempt at Group 1 weight-for-age. While he does have a handy fresh record he hasn't won below 2000m and he'll be a watch for next time.
She's Ideel (Bjorn Baker): Very smart staying mare first-up since the Sydney Cup and while she did win a trial leading into this it was against two rivals. She always runs well fresh and last prep she kicked off with a closing third over 1300m in the Group 2 Millie Fox. Still, she'll want more ground to be competitive at Group 1 level.
Star Of The Seas (Chris Waller): One of the better horses going around yet to win a Group 1 race, he was tipped out by Verry Elleegant in this race last year on a soft 6 and again narrowly denied in the George Main. Since then he's won once, at 1600m in Melbourne, and while he'd be harder to beat on a soft track like he found last year he's more than capable of featuring.
Think It Over (Kerry Parker): We're fast learning not to underestimate this six-year-old who ended a stellar autumn with a gallant fourth in the Queen Elizabeth in April. He's shown some sharpness in his recent trials, he won first-up last prep and went on to prove himself at weight-for-age so he has a case to be a real contender.
Verry Elleegant (Chris Waller): Staged a superb performance to win this race last year and it's hard to dispute her status as the nation's best racehorse. That win a year ago was her only victory when first-up but she's a rightful early favourite. Her only public trial showed she's tracking well for her spring campaign and, pre barrier draw, you'd be brave to suggest she won't be in the finish.
Early TAB betting (as at Monday 2pm):
$3.50 Verry Elleegant
$6 Kolding, Mo'unga
$8 Cascadian, Colette, Think It Over
$15 Dreamforce, Hungry Heart, Imaging
$26 Brandenburg, Keiai Nautique, Master Of Wine, Mount Popa, Star Of The Seas
$51 She's Ideel
