Is the Mackinnon Stks the race it once was from a Melbourne Cup point of view?

This year will be a great determiner. Entrants often used the race as their final hit out for the Tuesday. Sometimes their runs were slashing wins like Let's Elope, Empire Rose or Rogan Josh while others required greater inspection such as Viewed, Kensei or Subzero. However as a form line to the Melbourne Cup the last horse to do the double was Rogan Josh. See if we can find the 2010 winner.

• 2005 – LAD OF THE MANOR 5g (Zabeel x Matrona) ($3 fav)

Jockey: Greg Childs, Trainer: Roger Hoysted

Barrier: 3, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 2:01.72, 600m Sectional: 34.46

Margin: 1.3L, Track: Good, Starters: 10

2nd: Our Smoking Joe (58.0kg), 3rd: Lachlan River (57.0kg)

Lad of the Manor didn't start his career until late but he came solid as a racehorse in the 2005 Autumn when 3rd in Makybe Diva's Australian Cup. That set him up for a great Spring and he repaid his connections with top class performances in the Liston, Dato Tan Chin Nam and the Turnbull. He was the unlucky runner in the Cox Plate when the wall of horses took off and the jockey missed the boat. Greg Childs jumped on for the Mackinnon and his opportunity to recoup. He hadn't been overtaxed during the Spring and was probably peaking at Flemington. His 2-1 price was close to 2-1 on during the run as Childs positioned him to perfection, just off the leaders. Lad of the Manor would contest and be competitive in many other G1s but he couldn't quite close the deal.

• 2006 – DESERT WAR 6g (Desert King x High Heels) ($7)

Jockey: Chris Munce, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 7, Weight: 58.0kg

Gross Time: 2:02.38, 600m Sectional: 36.08

Margin: 2.5L, Track: Dead, Starters: 15

2nd: Growl (57.5kg), 3rd: Aqua D'Amore (55.5kg)

The champion of the Randwick mile hadn't had a lot of fun in his trips to Melbourne. A poor Caulfield Cup off a strange lead in prep in '04 and Cox Plate, Mackinnon and Emirates Stks shockers in '05 all came off excellence in them Epsom. Maybe he used all his petrol in those mile triumphs. In 2006 he went via the Epsom again but this time he was given a freshen up before the venture to Flemington. One factor played right into Desert War's hands on this day. The track harboured an horrendous leader bias and 6-1 was a juicy price to see if he the bias remained for the 7th race. He Desert War got that easy lead while Roman Arch, Aqua D'Amore and Growl filed in behind. Chris Munce let him stride and he opened up a 2L margin with 5L to 3rd up by the half way mark. With nothing making ground, Munce took off at the 600 as horses like El Segundo barely made a dent. As he got older the 2000 was probably a better fit for him with his high cruising speed and his win gave Munce 2 x G1s and Gai three wins on a landmark day.

• 2007 – SIRMIONE 4g (Encosta de Lago x World Guide) ($61)

Jockey: Peter Mertens, Trainer: Bart Cummings

Barrier: 10, Weight: 58.5kg

Gross Time: 2:02.32, 600m Sectional: 35.36

Margin: 1.8L, Track: Good, Starters: 14

2nd: Princess Coup (56.0kg), 3rd: Zipping (59.0kg)

Most Mackinnon winners of recent years have been well exposed, been in good form and duly right in the market. Then along comes Sirmione. A Caulfield Cup preparation founded mainly on open handicaps conjured up about exactly what his form had exposed – a well beaten 11L 12th. But in Bart's inimitable style, he was barely fazed. He was a Flemington horse and wanted 2000m. In a fast run race, Annenkov, Captious and 3yo Pillar of Hercules led. Peter Mertens let Sirmione get far back and while other WFA stars like Haradasun, Miss Finland and Devil Moon needed to get tracking so they didn't miss the boat, Mertens could play the stalker. At the furlong it looked like Sirmione had joined in at the top of the straight as the handicappers shined. His win gave Bart his 10th Mackinnon and G1 winner No 248.

• 2008 – THESEO 5g (Danewin x Ozone Sand) ($6)

Jockey: Nash Rawiller, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 2, Weight: 59.0kg

Gross Time: 2:03.84, 600m Sectional: 33.80

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 11

2nd: Barbaricus (58.5kg), 3rd: Sirmione (59.0kg)

This is becoming the race that Gai Waterhouse has called her own in Melbourne town. All Our Mob, Grand Armee and Desert War have all raced on the pace and dominated. In Theseo she had an honest trier who brought with him good form and great fitness after an Epsom win and close up in the Cox Plate. Arlington led with Barbaricus outside and Theseo tailing behind. In a race which didn't change for a long way, Barbaricus strode to the lead at the 300 but in doing so allowed the Star Thoroughbreds horse out. They cleared away to fight it out. Nose for nose over the last 100m, Gai's boy put his down when it counted to give her another big Derby day after Northern Meteor's win. Behind them Viewed ran last being checked in the straight – so what........ famous last words.

• 2009 – SCENIC SHOT 7g (Scenic x Sweepshot) ($8.50)

Jockey: Shane Scriven, Trainer: Dan Morton

Barrier: 6, Weight: 59.0kg

Gross Time: 2:03.46, 600m Sectional: 34.44

Margin: 2L, Track: Good, Starters: 11

2nd: Miss Maren (57.0kg), 3rd: Viewed (59.0kg)

Scenic Shot had an outstanding Brisbane campaign. He won the Doomben Cup, O'Shea Stks and the topped it off with the Brisbane Cup under a whopping 60kg. So winning those races meant he deserved a crack at the big league again. The third in the Turnbull was good enough to suggest they weren't wasting their time. He had the toughest run in the Cox Plate making the first move and still held on for fifth. Despite that run he wasn't near fav as punters were sold on Rangirangdoo's big MV win. The race was upset before the start when Zipping went under the gates and was scratched throwing his Cup chances out the window. Also Vigor had been taken out on race morning as the connections rolled the dice to make the Melb Cup – a decision they will regret forever now. Cima de Triomphe led this time by a margin and it gave the stayers a chance to run on. Scenic Shot pulled out at the 700m again to get clear running and it was the winning move. While Miss Maren showed she was a good 2000m mare again and Viewed ran home strongly, the winner gave his team another triumph after the Scenic Blast celebrations earlier in the year. It also gave Scriven some rebuttal for Octagonal all those year's ago in the Derby.

RACE PROFILE

o The last Cox Plate winner to complete double was 19 years ago - Better Loosen Up. There were 3 in quick succession before him (Dulcify, Rising Prince, Rubiton).

o Barriers have been of little importance.

o Sydney has won five of the last eight runnings.

o Bart Cummings has won 10 Mackinnons, Gai had four now herself.

o Mostly favoured runners to the fore except the odd bolt from the blue like Sirmione or La Bella Dama.

o Before Sirmione's late charge, most Mackinnons have been won by those on or near the pace.

o Mares don't have a good record with only La Bella Dama ('01), Champagne ('98), Let's Elope ('91), Horlicks ('89) & Empire Rose ('88) winning in the last 36 years.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner – 6yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <1-4> - 4 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner – $13.40

o Breakdown of winners – 8 geldings, 1 mares & 1 entire

o Last 10 Years Liston Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Lad of the Manor ('05)

o Last 10 Years Hill Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Desert War ('06)

o Last 10 Years George Main / Mackinnon Stks double – Grand Armee ('04)

o Last 10 Years Dato Tan Chin Nam Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Lad of the Manor ('05)

o Last 10 Years Underwood Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Oliver Twist ('00)

o Last 10 Years Epsom Hcp / Mackinnon Stks double – Theseo ('08)

o Last 10 Years Yalumba Stks / Mackinnon Stks – Lonhro ('02)

o Last 10 Years Stutt Stks / Norman Robinson / Mackinnon Stks treble – Casual Pass ('03)

o Last 10 Years Grand Prix / Mackinnon Stks double – Sirmione ('07)

o Last 10 Years Chipping Norton Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Desert War ('06)

o Last 10 Years Queen Elizabeth Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Grand Armee ('04)

o Last 10 Years Chelmsford Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – Lonhro ('02)

o Last 10 Years Tesio Stks / Mackinnon Stks double – La Bella Dama ('01)

o Last 10 Years Brisbane Cup-Doomben Cup / Mackinnon Stks double – Scenic Shot ('09)

SUMMARY & SELECTIONS

For the first time in a long while the Mackinnon of 2010 is a real eye opener to Tuesday. So many of the big chances, including four of the top local hopes, are running.

The big question is from just a Mackinnon standpoint how will they run the race? One may hazard a guess that despite racing on-pace all campaign, So You Think may go back to teach him to settle for Tuesday.

That said he won't get too far back in a field of 12 anyway. Interestingly, if so, he will be back beside Shocking so whoever finishes off the best will likely start fav in the Cup.

Ginga Dude and Descarado look the obvious on-pacers without much pressure. Perhaps now over longer against slower running horses, Kidnapped may be able to position up better here.

Until he shows us that he is over the top how can we go past So You Think?

OK Some Cox Plate winners and even defeated favourites have not exactly strode clear when asked to back up (perhaps a good reason for our campaign to run this race on the last day and swap with the Emirates is valid).

But in reality he meets mostly handicappers again and should do the job. Gauging his Cup chances will be a fascinating sidelight.

Given that pace factor, happy to keep Ginga Dude right there. Michael Walker is giving some of these jocks clinics on riding front runners and has pinched at least three races on them.

Could we see another La Bella Dama? He's certainly up to the rest over this trip bar perhaps the fav.

We've been tailing in Kidnapped all prep but he's been run off his feet. That can't happen here and he showed in the Carbine Club as a 3yo what he can do when ridden well at this track.

With the Mac back in town, this race is probably what he has been aimed at before heading overseas and he might run a big race, especially the place.

Selection: (6) SO YOU THINK

Hardest to Beat: (4) GINGA DUDE

Best Roughie: (9) KIDNAPPED