Historical Analysis of the Villiers Stakes
VILLIERS STAKES - G2 1600m
The format for the big Randwick miles are well known but last time it was not run there. Like all the major races run over the famous course, you see big fields, high drama and fabulous finishes.
The Villiers might be run in the Summer but it has produced several G1 winners and been contested by a few as well. Take a look at the recent December mile winners.
PROFILING THE RACE
o Besides Utzon’s 57.5kg weight in ’06, Monton’s 2011 win with 58kg was the most carried to win since Soho Square lumped 56.5kg in ’92. In other words it’s a light weights race.
o Inside barriers have been clearly advantaged recently which isn’t always a necessity over the mile nor a Warwick Farm trend. The quinella on the Kenso in 2013 drew out.
o Mares have won 6 times in the last 23 years.
o Last few years have seen plenty of double figure priced winners.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 5yo (4 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.0kg.
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $14.
o Breakdown of winners - 6 geldings, 3 mares & 1 entire.
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Festival Stks (3), Recognition Stks (1), Other Handicaps (5), Spell (1)
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 4, Weight: 54.0kg, Gross Time: 1:37.40
Margin: 0.2L, Track: Soft (7), Starters: 142nd: Dibayani (59.0kg), 3rd: Sarrasin (54.0kg)
Review: What an outstanding training effort by Kris Lees. Coming off a mile and a half run, he freshened up at the mile and loved wet tracks which helped. Even from a low draw, this was still a top ride from Ben Melham.
He was back last but began to weave a passage nearer the inside as he switched course. He charged the last bit but was running down the non-winner in Dibayani.
Despite that and being beaten in the Gosford Cup after that, they would try the same formula with him first up, running two enormous races in the Doncaster and Queen Elizabeth into third and then won the Doomben Cup too.
Barrier: 6, Weight: 53.0kg, Gross Time: 1:33.98
Margin: 1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 202nd: Tinto (56.0kg), 3rd: It’s Somewhat (59.0kg)
Review: Well this was a well-made out plan for a horse coming back from having some issues and needing time. Happy Clapper lost his first five starts. He’d now won six of his last seven.
An exceptional win wide in his lead up at Rosehill was followed by the opposite here as he got up the inside albeit a few off the fence. Just as Tinto was being hailed the winner, Avdulla drove the favourite through and he did win coming away. With Doncaster exception now available, placement was the key again.
Barrier: 6, Weight: 53.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.27
Margin: 0.2L, Track: Slow (5), Starters: 152nd: I’m Imposing (56.5kg), 3rd: Strawberry Boy (57.0kg)
Review: Queenslanders have had a good record in this race going back a few years. When two of them started the favourites in 2014, you thought it would be a similar tale. Rudy had run in the strong Winter classic races and run well in them until the Derby.
The 2400m might have been too far. But he showed the mile was perfect winning this feature. He sat around midfield or just worse for a lot of the race as Strawberry Boy carved along. Sir Moments was closer than expected.
Luke Tarrant weaved a passage and held off the fast finishing I’m Imposing. Drama followed when firstly fourth got third on protest and Tarrant weighed in 0.4kg light. It was a close thing all round.
