Historical Analysis of the Sydney Cup

SYDNEY CUP - G1 3200m

A two mile G1 test in Australia is becoming a thing of the past. Perth and Brisbane have reduced their Cups to a mile and a half while Adelaide stays at the 3200m but has also lost its status. It’s doubtful the Sydney Cup would change but it needed some good winners to keep the wolves at bay and like the Metropolitan, it has had them recently. It is unlikely there are any Makybe Divas, Tie the Knots, Kingston Towns or Galilee around at present but there is a prestigious race to win. Who takes 2014’s renewal?

PROFILING THE RACE

o County Tyrone ran in an amazing SIX straight Sydney Cups for a record of 1 win, 2 x 2nd, 2 x 4th and an 8th.

o Inside to middle barriers have been the most successful - barrier 8 won it five times over 7 years.

o Mares have only won three times since 1989.

o It’s been a good race for some not so high profile trainers.

o Tie the Knot’s 57kg then Mourayan’s 58kg are the highest weights carried since 1976 which was on a lower limit.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 7yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner – 54.5kg

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $8

o Breakdown of winners - 7 geldings, 1 entire & 2 mares

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Chairman’s Hcp (5), BMW Stks (4), Adelaide Cup (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2013 - MOURAYAN 7h (Alhaarth x Mouramara) ($12)

Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Barrier: 2, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 3:24.29

Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good, Starters: 10

2nd: Norsqui (55.0kg), 3rd: Aliyana Tilde (54.5kg)

Review: The stable have a wonderful history of winning major staying races. So much so that this made it six Aussie two mile wins in about six years. And yet again it was with an import. Mourayan had been here for three seasons after previously placing in an Irish Derby. It was his durability that had kept him at the top level and he loved Randwick so Lloyd Williams sent him north. It was a decently run Cup without being overly fast. As Kelinni moved up at the 800m, that horse went from bolting to gone so Bowman tracked him as long as he could then wound up and wore the leaders down.

2012 - NIWOT 7g (Galileo x Too Darn Hot) ($4.25)

Jockey: Dwayne Dunn, Trainer: Hawkes Partnership

Barrier: 2, Weight: 55.5kg, Gross Time: 3:20.49

Margin: 0.4L, Track: Good, Starters: 16

2nd: Efficient (58.0kg), 3rd: Once Were Wild (55.0kg)

Review: Here was an undoubted two miler. First Aussie horse home in the Melbourne Cup, he was well supported on the day after having several WFA runs of good quality without winning. From the good gate, Dunn let him relax midfield and only made him move when it counted. He pushed out on the bend and was in the right lane out wide. While Efficient was forced to check back inside, Niwot clicked up when challenged and held on for a well-deserved win.

2011 - STAND TO GAIN 4g (Hawk Wing x Plum Fairy) ($21)

Jockey: Rod Quinn, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 4, Weight: 53.5kg, Gross Time: 3:29.14

Margin: 1L, Track: Heavy, Starters: 15

2nd: Older Than Time (53.5kg), 3rd: Solid Billing (53.0kg)

Review: Chris Waller had had an incredible run with his imported horses. Stand To Gain had come from France and was benefitted on a heavy track. Waller had already secured the Queen Elizabeth with another import earlier in the day. But as Randwick succumbed to another bad weather day after a week of fine days, it made the race much longer than the 3200m. As the race got hot at the 800m there was a bad fall which saw Tinseltown and the winner’s stable mate Hawk Island come down, the latter had Glyn Schofield breaking a collarbone. Up the rise and Stand To Gain took over looking vulnerable. But he simply plodded quicker than the rest up the straight.