With an estimated global market value of around $75 billion in 2023, horse racing remains one of the most widely bet-on sports, alongside football and basketball​.

The United Kingdom and the United States are two of the most significant markets for horse racing betting, with iconic events like the Grand National, Kentucky Derby, and Royal Ascot drawing millions of bets each year.

Online betting platforms have revolutionized the industry, allowing fans to place bets from anywhere, enhancing the sport’s reach beyond physical racetracks. Currently, around 60% of all horse racing bets are placed online, compared to 40% at physical tracks because of the convenience and variety that online bookmakers offer, including live streaming of races, in-depth analytics, and attractive promotions. 

Major online operators like William Hill dominate the digital space, with platforms reporting increases in online traffic by nearly 25% annually over the past five years.

Long Odds and Favourites

Betting favorites have had mixed results in recent years, suggesting that while they offer some reliability, they are not always the best value bets. For instance, favorites have struggled historically in the Grand National, with only five wins since 2000. On the other hand, long shots have provided some of the biggest payouts, including a 100/1 victory by Mon Mome in 2009 and Noble Yeats’ 50/1 success in 2022​.

Similar patterns emerge in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where betting favorites have been successful only sporadically. In contrast, horses with $24 or more odds have won four of the last twelve editions, highlighting the potential for profitable bets outside the top market choices​.

Betting fans looking to get started can claim a first deposit bonus with a William Hill sign-up promo code, which will provide an additional boost as they explore these betting opportunities.

One of the most consistent trends in racing has been the advantage of early speed, particularly in dirt track events. At major meets like Belmont’s Fall Meet and the Kentucky Derby, horses positioned near the front in the opening stages have shown a higher likelihood of success. 

At Belmont, horses leading or staying within a length of the early lead won 53% of dirt route races. This trend extends to dirt sprints, where early speed remains a decisive factor, with 55% of winners leading early​.

Conversely, turf races often favor horses that can stalk—those that maintain a position just off the pace. Many turf route winners at Belmont emerged from between one and four lengths off the pace. 

Post position influences outcomes, especially in tightly contested sprint and route races. For example, outside posts (13 or wider) have produced many winners in the Kentucky Derby in recent years. 

Similarly, Belmont’s races have shown an advantage for horses in inside posts during two-turn routes on dirt, where positions 1 to 3 have a higher success rate. However, for turf routes, the inside two post positions also present the best winning percentage, making them favorable spots for bettors to focus on​.

Punters in 2024 are increasingly leveraging trends related to trainer and jockey form. Trainers like Chad Brown, who excelled at Saratoga, continue influencing outcomes, particularly in meets like Belmont’s fall season. The same holds for jockeys; top riders such as Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat, who dominated recent meets, are often pivotal figures to watch when placing bets​.

Moreover, bettors are also exploring the dynamics of age and weight, particularly in events like the Grand National. Horses aged 8 and 11 tend to perform best, and those carrying less than 11 stone have shown a consistent advantage​.

Understanding racing trends is essential for maximizing betting success. Speed remains crucial on dirt, while turf racing favors a more strategic stalking approach. Analyzing post positions, particularly in major meets like Belmont and the Kentucky Derby, can also guide bettors toward more profitable choices. 

Finally, while betting on favorites offers safety, exploring longer odds and the impact of trainer and jockey form can uncover valuable opportunities for the informed punter.