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The July Barometer

There were a few worried faces come last Friday night after the running of the Grade 2 Betting World 1900 at Greyville as a host of Vodacom Durban July hopefuls failed to deliver on expectations.

The one beaming face in the crowd that of Duncan Howells after Ten Gun Salute’s scintillating performance to cement his place in the July field.

There were excuses aplenty, many labelling the soft ground as the main culprit for some below par performances, but it was a race of contrasts.

As expected, the front-running Serissa did the donkey work but hardly set the track alight. On his tail and in the box seat throughout was stable companion Tilbury Fort. When Serissa fell away in the straight, Tilbury Fort was left with a clear run to the wire but stayed on for second rather than quicken. Last year’s Investec Derby winner and fourth in the July, It’s My Turn, ran a similar race but there looks to be plenty of meat left on that bone.

In stark contrast was the performance of Ten Gun Salute. He raced wide throughout and only had Mr Winsome behind him at the top of the straight. But when the button was pushed he quickened instantly past favourite Elusive Silva and swallowed up the rest of the opposition in a matter of strides.

Mr Winsome was also doing his best work late and Dean Kannemeyer must now be in two minds whether to take advantage of the final supplementary stage for the July.

Ten Gun Salute and Mr Winsome obviously revelled in the going but it was a particularly good effort from the winner who had been in a race against time to get ready for the race after pulling a back muscle when trailing in last in the Drill Hall Stakes two weeks prior.

Ten Gun Salute was one of the fancied runners in last year’s July and now a year older and assured of a place in the field, his current odds of 18-1 look fairly generous in spite of being cut from 25-1 after this victory.

Of the balance, Elusive Silva was running on well enough to suggest that he cannot be written off come July 1. This was his second outing after a lengthy break and he may just have come up flat on the night. Banner Hill, Prince Of Wales, Macduff, Master Switch, Copper Pot and Rocket Ball all have work to do.

Thirty minutes later Investec Cape Derby winner Edict Of Nates ran a cracking July warm-up in an Allowance Plate. Winner, Crowd Pleaser, is smart in his own right and led all the way but Edict Of Nantes, giving the winner 6kg, was closing the gap quickly and did his July chances no harm at all. The race was switched to the poly surface and favourite Secret Captain found himself out-paced at the business end. He ran a similar race in the Daisy Guineas where he stayed on for second. He gets another bite at the cherry in the Gr1 Daily News 2000 but gives the impression that he is still immature and will be a better horse next season.

Last year’s winner, The Conglomerate, and Algoa Cup winner Nebula were up next in a Pinnacle Stakes, the latter showing his well-being after taking a heavy fall at his previous start. He will go the 2200m trip of the July for the first time come July 1 but on last Friday’s evidence he should see out the trip comfortably.

The Conglomerate was not asked many questions and has been relatively lightly raced this season. He raced handy throughout but was never in the hunt for the winner’s cheque as Anton Marcus nursed him home under a few back-handers. An each-way nibble at 33-1 may not be a sign of madness.

On Saturday at Turffontein, The Elmo Effect failed to feature in a Pinnacle Stakes event and his chances of making the July line-up look slim.

2017 Vodacom Durban July ante-post betting guide [as at May 24]:

6/1 Marinaresco, Al Sahem; 9/1 Elusive Silva; 10/1 Edict Of Nantes; 12/1 Its My Turn; 13/1 Black Arthur; 18/1 Nebula, Horizon, Ten Gun Salute; 20/1 Saratoga Dancer, Krambambuli; 25/1 Captain America, Pagoda, Master Switch; 28/1 Zodiac Ruler, Copper Force; 30/1 Brazuca, Africa Rising; 33/1 Deo Juvente, French Navy, The Conglomerate, Master Sabina; 35/1 Tilbury Fort, Nightingale, Orchid Island; 50/1 Bela-Bela, Liege; 80/1 Secret Captain, Banner Hill, Prince Of Wales; 100/1 Girl On The Run, Smiling Blue Eyes, Safe Harbour, Witchcraft, Trophy Wife, Silver Mountain, Bi Pot; 150/1 Royal Badge; 200/1 Macduff, Bold Viking; 250/1 Jubilee Line; 300/1 Fort Meyers, The Elmo Effect, Rocketball, Copper Pot;

Odds courtesy of www.trackandball.co.za and subject to change


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